Collateral triangles

 

Every war has, besides its expectable casualties, additional damages that could not be avoided, predicted or foreseen.

In recent wars, the term “collateral damages” has been coined to justify or explain these unexpected damages.

We see a potential collateral damage to a company that has nothing to do, in principle, with the Oracle-SAP case, which is Hewlett-Packard. As much as its current CEO, Leo Apotheker, used to be CEO at SAP, and as much as he was a potential witness to the case, but managed not to show up, this could impact HP’s reputation somehow.

Now, at the same time, we are able to see a potential second collateral effect which might benefit both SAP and HP.

Should SAP shares lose enough value due to the trial’s verdict, it could be a potential good move for HP to do a little M&A with SAP… Still, a careful move to make, as it would be a very special situation for the former SAP CEO to acquire SAP precisely, when SAP just recently came out from the trial like it did.

Nothing against an ex-CEO to purchase as CEO somewhere else his former company. After all, HP PSG’s head, Todd Bradley, used to be CEO at Palm, and Palm is now part of HP, isn’t it? It’s more about the triangle made of SAP Ex-CEO now HP CEO – Trial – Shares losing value…

Interesting theory in our opinion, definitely worth blog posting.

Technorati Tags: hp,leo apotheker,tomorrownow,trial,lawsuit,jury,verdict,sap,mergers and acquisitions,collateral damages

The missing crook

 

President Richard Nixon stepped down from office in 1973 after the arch-famous Watergate scandal. He basically had been responsible for having placed illegal systems to spy the Democrat Party.

Despite his attempts to defend his case with his famous “I’m not a crook” quote, he was over.

The Oracle-SAP trial that has ended so far with the jury’s verdict of a $1.3 billion to be paid by the latter to the former, and has been based on some sort of spying the arch-enemy too. We guess that, as in 1973 the internet was not so developed, no downloading of anything was really possible at that time.

The only conceptual difference we are finding between Watergate and SAP-gate is the missing crook. We have no one taking full accountability for the theft, and standing up to try to defend himself declaring he is not a crook.

The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, aka Big Mouth Larry, certainly has tried to make Leo Apotheker, former SAP CEO, to take the Nixon role, but the latter swiftly avoided to serve as a witness before the jury.

Now, what might have the perception of Leo Apotheker in the market been? It could very well be a bad one, meaning that his no-show might have created an impression of cowardice or having something to hide. Should this be the case, it could very well impact HP seriously as well.

After the recent announcement by HP of its latest quarterly results, HP shares came up quite sharply, so good the results were compared to expectations. The day after, almost all the gains have been lost again, leaving HP’s share value halfway between Monday’s closure and Tuesday’s opening. Could it eventually have happened because having SAP been fined so much, the market thinks Leo Apotheker had something to do with that?

We do not have, of course, any proof of any involvement at all of Leo Apotheker in the TomorrowNow case. And we do not intendo to suggest he has the slightest guilt. However, we still think it could very well happen that people could think the way we described.

What suggests as well that HP should be cautious and careful about this, and keep an eye open to avoid being “collaterally damaged” by this verdict. HP is not completely unlinked to the case, at least from a market perception perspective.

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Beside America’s Cup

 

The jury has spoken, and they have decided SAP is almost as guilty as the oracle anticipated. The bill? $1.3 billion, close enough to the oracle’s demands, which rose to at least $1.6 billion, to quote Safra Catz, co-President at the oracle.

Precisely Safra Catz is probably one of the happiest persons in the industry, as she has been the key exec from the oracle, even beyond the Pontifex Maximus. Her two examples did make the magic on the jury, comparing the case to stealing a $2,000 watch and selling it for just $20, and the analogy based on Warner Bros copying illegally Disney’s movies. Clear examples, though arguable in our opinion,

We honestly thought the jury would take longer to decide, and its verdict would be closer to SAP’s position than to the oracle’s. We thought Big Mouth’s boasting all over, plus a real understanding of the oracle’s argumentation would have made the jury think that way.

Thinking a bit about the case, we think we missed some very important matters, the first one being that the jury is made of average common people, away from technicalities. Example’s like Catz’ have really been worth telling.

The second one is more related to the oracle’s ability to use the case for setting example of what happens when property, intellectual or physical, is stolen. Americans, by tradition, history and character, are extremely sensitive to private property. And this sort of result is what happens to thieves in America, the jury has said.

The third one is linked to the oracle’s ability to place SAP as a careful thief who was knowing exactly what they were doing, and kept on until they were caught. From the very beginning, the message from the oracle (supported by early declarations from the Pontifex Maximus) was pointing SAP as criminals against property.

The fourth one has been smartly played by the oracle too. They could not get hold of Leo Apotheker, and his absence might have been taken by the jury as cowardice, or his intention to hide something. We always thought he should have served as witness, but the possible damage for not having been there might have been too much.

Certainly exemplary, the case has anyway set a record in this kind of cases… Another trophy to stand beside the America’s Cup for the Pontifex.  

Technorati Tags: leo apotheker,larry ellison,sap,hp,oracle,trial,lawsuit,tomorrownow,copyright infringement,phyllis hamilton,jury,verdict

 

Save your fireworks for the moment

 

After Hewlett-Packard posted its latest quarterly results and outlined next fiscal year expectations, there has been a general perception of HP willing to provide a “Thanksgiving gift” to its employees or issuing pay raises, and similar views.

Though arguably technically correct expressions, we do not really think Hewlett-Packard could consider this a gift or a pay raise.

Firstly, what Hewlett-Packard is going to do with salaries is just setting them back to the levels of early 2009, before Mark Hurd decided to slash them under the financial circumstances of that moment. This does not really seem and increase at all. Conceptually speaking, Hewlett-Packard was requesting support from its employees at that time, and putting salaries now right were they where is just returning the favor.

Secondly, it was only a portion of employees who were impacted by salary reductions in 2009. It’s only them who are going to have their wages repositioned. This is, obviously, not a pay raise.

Thirdly, HP will grant better funding for US employees social plans 401(K). True that HP is an American company… as true is that it has a lot of employees who are not working in the US nor for the US branches of Hewlett-Packard. Is this a general benefit for HP employees? We are afraid this goes only to employees based in the US.

Of course, we recognize a positive tone under after these news. But if we were an average HP employee, we would be cautious. These measures are not something to throw fireworks. In fact, as we said earlier in November, this somehow the least Hewlett-Packard should do for its employees, especially after the difficult times of 2009 are over. At least, according to Hewlett-Packard’s own results.

We still see two benefits for Hewlett-Packard after these measures:

On one hand, as Léo Apotheker was not at all responsible for those pay cuts in 2009, he will benefit from employees appreciation. He could have simply ignored the need to act as he has, demanding more time to think about it, as he has said when being asked for more details on his plans for the future. Even in the case he had done so, nobody would have been able to blame him for the pay cuts.

On the other, there might be some gains in the appreciation employees have for the company they work for. A more positive attitude from them would certainly turn into better performance, one way or another.

Overall, tone is OK… but we would recommend some skepticism for the time being. It probably is a bit too early, to quote Léo Apotheker himself.

 

 

Technorati Tags: hp,leo apotheker,quarterly results,conference call,fiscal q1,financial results,mark hurd,employee satisfaction,pay raises,benefits,press conference

No more hiding, yet hidden

 

Several months ago, Hewlett-Packard announced its partnership with Bletchley Park for its WWII archives digitization.

For those readers who might not be familiar to the name, Bletchley Park is the site where the main activities by the Intelligence Services took place in order to decipher and break German codes.

According to Sir Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister during the war, Bletchley Park was the British Secret Weapon that allowed them to win the war. In fact they succeeded in breaking the German Code used by the famous Enigma machines, and ever since, German communications were transparent to the Allies despite having had the most technologically advanced cipher system. By the way, Germans never learnt before they surrendered their code had been broken, so sure they were about it.

Leó Apotheker is proving certainly some special skills which we find uncommon in a standard CEO. Not only he has smartly avoided any distraction related to the SAP-Oracle trial that is in its final stages, but as well shows some genuine sense of humour.

Furthermore, we think we have detected some additional skill. If we read carefully the press note in the previous link, we notice that just after the humoristic comment about actually being in Palo Alto during the conference call with analysts where HP posted latest financial results, he made a reference to Oracle’s attempt to distract him calling the latter “a competitor”.

Many journalists and online media have taken Oracle’s acquisition of Sun a sort of war declaration to HP, as Oracle had never been before in the hardware business. HP has claimed always Oracle as a partner, even after Mark Hurd’s “defection” in late summer 2010 to Oracle.

But we believe the term “competitor” was not really used just by chance. As the humoristic remark by Apotheker was catching the audience’s attention, he discreetly was sending a warning: Calling Oracle “a competitor” without mentioning directly its name was a way, in our opinion, to accept the war declaration from Oracle. Something like “Hi there, Larry! If you are looking for war, you got it.”

As a matter of fact, there are some facts that might support this thesis:

1. Out from the strategy hints Herr Apotheker offered, it seems clear his intention of boost R&D and software within HP. If this is not targeting Oracle, we guess nothing would. As Oracle got Sun, HP steps into software. If Oracle shows its teeth, HP does the same thing.

2. If HP confirms its dumping of Siebel (part of Oracle) and switches to Salesforce for CRM, this would be a clear war act.

We do not really know how close Herr Apotheker is to HP’s projects with Bletchley Park, but certainly he, on top of other skills, seems to be showing some expertise in coded messages.

Technorati Tags: apotheker,hp,sap,oracle,trial,tomorrownow,larry ellison,lawsuit,code,bletchley park,winston churchill,enigma,competition,management,conference call,quarterly results

Unnecessary oracles

 

Long time ago, in the times of Ancient Greece, people consulted oracles to foresee the consequences of their acts, to know somehow the future in advance, and based many of their decisions upon the priest’s or priestess’ response to their queries.

It was the case of Croesos, King of Lydia, who asked the oracle at Delphi what would the outcome be should he attack the Persian Empire. The priestess at the oracle cryptically replied that if Croesos attacked the Persians, one mighty empire would be destroyed. Croesos, thinking she meant the Persians, certainly attacked. No wonder he thought that way: In anticipation to his question, he sent lavish presents to the oracle. The problem for Croesos was that the priestess was thinking of Lydia…

At that time, oracles were consulted even when answers were obvious. People believed the priests were in contact with the gods, and, no matter how obvious an answer could be, still they consulted the oracles, and donated huge treasures to get favorable responses.

Today, we would say oracles are not needed when consequences are obvious. Even if the priests still think they are so close to the gods that they are gods themselves.

And we believe Herr Apotheker, the missing pharmacist, probably thinks the same way…

 

 

Technorati Tags: larry ellison,hp,oracle ceo,siebel,crm,salesforce.com,leo apotheker,crm deal,dreamforce,enterprise

Houdini

 

Harry Houdini was an Hungarian-born American magician and escapologist, besides other aspects of his professional life.

He is best remembered precisely for his escapologist tricks . That was his magic: To escape from any sort of super-complicated wrapping with ropes, handcuffs or even chains, and amazing his audience with his demonstrations.

Today Hewlett-Packard has reported sort of magic results, exceeding analysts expectations.

Given the recent “escapologist” experiences demonstrated by Herr Apotheker, as Oracle has unsuccessfully claimed his attendance as a witness to the current trial it is waging against SAP, it looks like we have a new Houdini at Hewlett-Packard, as he delivers magic results when he disappears!

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Criticism and pain

 

When facing his government duties, Sir Winston Churchill said once: “Criticism is as necessary as pain; it reminds us that something is not going well and needs attention.”

More than a mere critical opinion or a different point of view, facts can be a much louder or stronger criticism. As such, it should probably be paid, therefore, more attention.

And for the moment, Sony Ericsson’s decision to not introduce smartphones with Windows Phone 7 is a fact.

There has been a lot of opinions back and forth, for and against Microsoft’s phone operating system… but so far, besides it’s poor performance in sales (as far as we have known), we have not seen a harder one.

If the fourth largest worldwide handset manufacturer says “no”, this is a serious warning to Ballmer’s boys. Especially if they have androids there, as reported in the link above.

Opening new stores may not be enough.

Giving free tickets for pop concerts might be useless.

Playing Incrediboy might not suffice.

Not caring for your developers might backfire.

Leaving it all to a wizard at the end of a yellow brick road may mislead.

Taking everything for granted does not solve problems.

If one treatment does not work, it is useless to repeat it to heal the problem.

and, definitely, we would not put the solving of our pains in the hands of apes.

Too many pain symptoms to avoid facing them, we believe.

Technorati Tags: microsoft,windows,smartphone,windows phone 7,steve ballmer,tablet,sony ericsson,android,google,apple,windows marketplace,microsoft store,appstore,iphone,blackberry,rimm,nokia,meego

Flaming balloons

 

By the end of the 19th Century, the German started developing balloons for military purposes. We could consider this milestone, together with the use of reconnaisance balloons during the American Civil war as the very early stages of modern air forces.

Despite the progress made since then until the late 30s, when classical planes had consolidates its dominance in the air, and when helicopters were beginning to have their earliest realistic prototypes, it was clear before 1940 that balloons had reached a dead end. The Hindenburg disaster in 1937 was the final chapter of its brief history.

Conceptually speaking, the defenders of the balloon industry used the principle of “best of both worlds” to insist in developing that industry. Static possibilities, later developed factually with helicopters, combined with actual mobility like in the classic planes, combined with its very low cost compared to the other models.

Caught halfway between the two flying models, there was no room for balloons.

In a brave attempt to bridge the gap between today’s two main trends towards easy, affordable computing ultra-mobility (netbooks and tablets), Dell is about to launch their Inspiron Duo device.

In our opinion, we are basically talking of an original design that combined the features of both types of devices, tablets and netbooks, and there is some praise about the possibility of getting the best of both worlds.

However, we see a bigger risk in getting caught halfway between both worlds, or, if you’d prefer, getting the worst of both worlds. Few advantages, all the disadvantages, that is.

Besides the clear disadvantages pointed out in the reference news, we see some more:

First, the flipping screen, as a movable part, can be sensitive to hardware failure. The less the mobile parts the better, for reliability. What takes us to the second item.

Second, though flash storage is a plus compared to standard disks with moving parts in terms of reliability, its increased capacity is not really a significant advantage, for netbooks and tablets are more and more oriented to online content that is stored in the “cloud”, not necessarily in a local disk.

Third, its operating system, as it is today, is not a rival for tablets in particular, powered by androids and iOS much more successfully than whatever Windows might be doing. Just look at market data for units already shipped, or to market predictions.

Fourth, having a keyboard (supposedly demanded by customers) is not really such an advantage. Millions of customers, using same figures as in previous item, are clearly NOT demanding such a keyboard, which adds cost, weight and technical complexity.

Fifth, a significant value for tablets, regardless of its OS, is the AppStore behind them. Microsoft is way behind Apple and Google, isn’t it?

Sixth, long-term financial viability. Even if Dell makes an initial success, following the “Qualdroid” business model does not guarantee financial success to them. The “Wintel” model proves so.

Seventh, as well related to Dell’s financials, they are starting from a very weak position at this moment that might not help at all in sustain the time it might take for this Inspiron thing to take off. Maybe they are diverting their consumer portfolio too much, with Streak, Inspiron, mobile phones…?

In praise of Dell we could say it is always good to try new things and move forward with innovation… but we do not really see a major chance here. Not to kill iPads nor Androids at least, Inspiron Duo might blow up like the Hindenburg did.

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Fred’s car could be colourful too.

 

Imagine Bob (figured name) took Fred’s (figured name) without Fred’s consent and used it to get on time to a business meeting that reported Bob $1 million, money which not have been made by Bob if he had been late to his meeting.

After the meeting, Bob was arrested by the police for having stolen Fred’s car. Bob had not damaged the car, and he opposed no resistance to his arrest. In fact, offered to pay for the gas he actually used. The car was worth $30,000.

Certainly Bob caused Fred some damage, as Fred was not able to use his own car for some time, until the police returned it.

Leaving aside the criminal aspect (the actual theft), would Fred really have any right to claim any of the $30,000, just because the actual usage of the car was a necessary step for Bob in the process of making the $1 million deal?

We would say, not being experts at law, that Bob should pay Fred for the actual gas, the insurance cost for the time Fred could not use his own car, and a certain compensation for any additional cost Fred could have had after his car theft: Transportation, phone calls, Fred’s earnings during hose days in case he needed his car for work, plus a certain additional amount for the hassle.

But probably it would be unfair to have Bob paying the $30,000 just because he used it to make the deal.

Last Friday Safra Catz cared to appear once again to give testimony in SAP-Oracle ongoing trial. And she gave another illustrative masterpiece of analogies which could be better understood by the jurors. 

True that the oracle’s intellectual property has a value. True that it should not have been illegally acquired by TomorrowNow. But the fact it is valuable does not increase or diminish the harm made by SAP to Oracle, which is the fact being tried.

Fair to claim $1.6 billion at least, just because the cost of what SAP used was that much? By the way, it was the oracle who said it was worth $1.6 billion at least…

If SAP made $40 million with the 358 customers that were “safe-passaged” from the oracle, by selling projects at 50% discount on the oracle’s fees, it means that the oracle would have got $80 million at the max if having continued business with those customers.

$80 million, plus $120 million already agreed to be paid for attorney’s costs (no criminal charges dropped as well) seem much more reasonable a sentence to us.

Fred could have said, by the way, his car was worth $60,000, or $90,000, based on sentimental value as well… lots of time washing it in the driveway, lots of happy times spent in the back seat, perhaps… and eventual colourful cool tuning, why not.

Weak argumentation in our opinion to claim that much, Kitty… sorry, “Catz”.

Technorati Tags: oracle,sap,tomorrownow,trial,lawsuit,copyright infringement,larry ellison,safra katz,phyllis hamilton,management,leo apotheker,safra catz,hp

They might need ear trumpets

 

The recent trend in the consumer side of this former topper in the PC market certainly suggests dropping this sandbagging division.

But their strategy doesn’t follow. They seem to trust their gut-feeling and believe they can put their consumer business in the same level that enterprise business is.

Several hundred million dollars in marketing campaigns, according to them, justified by their claim about listening to customers.

Well, in our opinion, they might consider sparing a few of those dollars to get some ear trumpets to listen better…

Frankly, the suggestion to either give up to others, like HP, that are doing far better in the consumer business, does not really seem absurd. Lenovo or Acer could as well do.

 

 

 

 

 

Technorati Tags: lenovo,pc,hp,dell,consumer market,apple,windows,microsoft,mac os,windows 7

They are actually telling

 

Technorati Tags: dell,michael dell,apple,lenovo,hp,pc,marketing,ad campaign,you will tell,lawsuit,quality,support

Katie’s concert

 

The other day there was a great concert in Seattle. One of the most popular pop stars of the moment was performing, and all the youngsters in the area were dying to be there.

The place was fully packed, al the tickets had been sold out.

Wandering around, we saw very many teenagers and kids enjoying a lot being there. Casually, they were dancing, singing, and even sharing their experience.

Some of them took their iPhones and Androids to make pictures of the scenery, the public, their friends or even themselves. And we are sure before the song was over, lots of those pics were already posted in Facebook, YouTube and other social networks or blogs.

Before taking the children there, their moms and dads surely used their Nokias and Balckberries to check in Google Maps where the place really was, and verified as well what was traffic like. Kids would not forgive them ever if they had failed to take them to the concert on time.

As well we noticed some of them were texting like crazy: “Y’know, mom still carries one of those old phones with no internet”, one kid was telling his friend…

In a certain moment, we happened to run into Katie. Katie is the daughter of a charming couple who are friends of ours. She loves pop music, which she used to play all day in her old mp3 player, and recently in her brand new iPod she got for her 15th birthday. She had asked for an iPhone, but mom and dad suggested her to wait for her Verizone’s current contract to expire.

“Hey, Katie! What a surprise to see you here”, we said. “It must have been difficult to get tickets, so full the place is”.

“Yeah, it was a surprise for me too. We could not find tickets anywhere, but the other day mom came home with several of them. I think she told me she got them in a PC shop or something that had opened recently somewhere nearby, and they were being given away for free. But not really sure, in fact”.

“For free?”, we asked.

“Don’t really remember, but when I get back home, I can check for you if you want. We can search the internet in our Mac.”

 

 

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Jingle in the Jungle

 

Rudyard Kipling, in his famous and well known Jungle Book, introduced us to King Louie, King of the Apes, who wanted to get the fire from man in order to dominate and rule the jungle.

Walt Disney’s version pictured the scene adorably in a party-like atmosphere were dozens of little monkeys sang, danced and provided the necessary support for King Louie to persuade little Mowgli to give fire away to him. Lovely song indeed, and well-known enough to have been used as commercial jingle for different spots.

I want to be like you, he said…

In a party-like environment too, Big Ape, King of Transpiration, as well wants to be like someone indeed, and tried to tease as well the audience.

I want to be like you, he said as well

A poor imitation. Indeed… Compassion prevents us to say anything else, but judge for yourself after you watch the following video, recorded more than 2 years ago, and NOT by a professional cameraman.

sounds familiar?

Apple did not need to give free tickets for youngsters pop idol’s concerts… nor hiring any histrionic music band…

We know that apes are capable of imitating human behaviour… but this is the first time we see a supposedly human being imitating an ape…

 

 

 

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So much by so many to so few

 

After the French defeat in the West in 1940, only England opposed the German Third Reich in its quest to dominate Europe.

The next logical step for the Germans was, obviously, to defeat Great Britain. In order to do that, Germany needed to effectively invade the British Islands, a task that required either domination of the seas by the Germans (rather impossible a mission) or an overwhelming superiority in the air in order to protect landing forces.

On paper, Germany’s might was many times stronger than the British, particularly on ground  and air forces. Therefore, decisions were made, and Germany launched a series of massive air attacks against Britain, which were later to be known as The Battle of England.

Air combat was surrounded by a lot of propaganda from the German side, a lot of boasting, if you will, particularly led by the boss of the German Air Force, die Luftwaffe, Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring.

Numerically inferior, lacking pilots and limited in resources, the Royal Air Force resisted for months, using intelligence, technological advantages like radar and the geographical benefit of battling over British territory.

By the end of 1940, a period described by Winston Churchill, His Majesty’s Prime Minister, as “Britain’s darkest hour”, the German High Command gave up any plans for invading Great Britain.

The full merit of that first and decisive British victory was fully due to the very limited number of pilots who served at the Royal Air Force, RAF, and in one of his most memorable quotes, Winston Churchill said that “never in History was so much owed by so many –the British- to so few” –the pilots.

Our opinion, and not more than just that, an opinion, is that after all the propaganda-like boasting and the even violent attacks by the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, with all his might and power, and despite the $120 million attorney’s fees to be paid by SAP, whatever the final result might be, the sentence will be closer to SAP’s position than to the oracle’s.

In this case, the savings for SAP compared to the potential total cost will be massive, so it could be considered an actual victory for the Germans. And in this case too, “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- to so few” –SAPs lawyers and particularly Top Execs, so few dared to appear.

Trying to be fair, however, we could have recommended the Pontifex to quote Winston Churchill too when he served his testimony, instead of boasting like a merchant sailor: “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- because of so few” –the actual “safe-passaged” customers.

Technorati Tags: raf,luftwaffe,battle of england,winston churchill,sap,leo apotheker,larry ellison,pontifex maximus,phyllis hamilton,tomorrownow,lawsuit,trial,copyright infringement,ingringement,oracle

 

Nothing to fear…

 

… but the sky falling on our heads. This is what Chief Vitalstatistix used to say to his fellow warriors in the Gaul village surrounded by the almighty Roman Legions in the Asterix cartoon books. Many of our readers might remember these comics by Herge.

So how could these few gauls uphold the Roman Empire? Easy: They could count on a certain magic potion that their peculiar druid Getafix was able to prepare, which provided extra strength to whomever drank it, and made them unique and extraordinary.

Steve Jobs seems to be a better druid or potion maker than the guy with the pharmacist name, Herr Apotheker, as the former somehow found the recipe for the magic potion that makes Apple unique.

In fact it seems that Apple has, at least in the tablet market for the moment, nothing to fear but reaching the sky too fast, what, for the matter, would have the same effect than having the sky falling on their heads. Both Chief Vitalstatistix and druid Getafix all in one, Jobs prospects look good in the tablet market. iPad’s dominating about 95% of the market, serious rivals are yet to come, and the only fear for iPad might be iPad 2.

Important to note, the Gauls in the comic books never ever used their potion to expand their village beyond its own walled limits which they held firmly not to prevent villagers from going out, but Romans to get into their Sancta Sanctorum. They did not need to flee nor expand. Happy they were in their spot beside the coast in Bretagne, where they lived much more happily than the Romans who sieged them.

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The Consul’s Legions

 

In the times of the Republic, Rome was ruled by the Senate. Senators were elected by the Senate, of course, but all men born within a senatorial family would be elected by birthright.

Senate had the power to declare war, and, therefore, it controlled the State Legions, the Roman Army.

Senate leaders (consuls, proconsuls, praetores or propraetores, province governors) therefore needed agreement and support from the Senate itself to use the Army for carrying on any war that sparked.

Commanding legions and succeeding at a military career was not an uncommon way to gain personal glory or reputation to step up for the commander. In many cases, successful political careers were based precisely in military reputation.

Therefore, political success required commanding legions, and commanding legions required support from the Senate. In other words, it was the Senate who controlled who could succeed in his political career by granting him command of legions, regardless the personal value as military leader of the commander.

If we look to the smartphone market, we see some parallelism with what happens to handset or operating systems manufacturers. Carriers do have a lot of power, and the success of this or that vendor depends quite much on this power. Carriers can, somehow, make or break success for this or that manufacturer. Much is being said, for example, about iPhones being distributed through Verizon, or about Apple’s relationship to carriers.

Successful Apples, Androids, LGs, Samsungs, HTCs, Nokias or RIMMs would depend on how “gracious” carriers might be when granting command of legions.

Back to Rome, we as well can see that if a given individual Senator was resourceful enough (ie rich and smart at the same time), he might enlist and equip his own legions, which would rival the State’s, controlled by the Senate. In fact this is what Gaius Marius did around 100 b.C. Thus, he became independent from the Senate to build his military and political career, pretty successful by the way.

We believe this is what Google might be doing, Rich and smart, they might be planning independence from senatorial carriers. And this might lead to a successful career, similar to Marius’, the only person in Roman History to be elected Consul nothing less than seven times.

Careful, Jobs… Androids might take this road to outflank you.

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Titanic effort

 

We do not believe the smartphones war will be a minor one at all. At the moment it looks like Apple’s iPhone and Google’s Android-based alternatives are taking a clear lead, eons beyond historical kings of the hill, Nokia and RIMM.

The latter will need a titanic effort to recover and catch up, apparently.

It looks, however, that Nokia’s N8 model, expected to be the company’s flagship, did not really get what “Titanic” was supposed to mean, we’re afraid.

 

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Staying in Moscow

 

When Germany invaded the Soviet Union in 1941 the world held its breath. Millions of German soldiers crossed the border, and once again smashed whatever troops the enemy put up against them in a major demonstration of the new way of leading war. Blitzkrieg, they called it.

Soviet units fell one by one anywhere the Germans appeared. Encircled by the dozens, the Soviet divisions surrendered and marched to the POW (Prisoner of War) camps in the German rear, or were killed on the spot. The biggest Army by manpower, the red units lost men by the millions.

The Soviet High Command was a complete disaster. No coherent defensive strategy was in place. And worst of all, Stalin virtually disappeared. It seemed he did not want to face reality, the brutal German invasion. Lacking leadership, Soviet cities fell to the Germans, dashing like lightning towards Moscow.

Soon enough, the Soviet government withdrew eastward, beyond the Urals mountain range, in order to reset itself and try to resist somehow the monstrous German tide. All the cabinet fled. All but Stalin.

When Moscow was nearing the German assault, Stalin finally appeared, almost at the very last moment. He delivered to the people one of his propaganda masterpieces, setting the guidelines for Soviet resistance. He was there, he appeared in the very last moment, proved he had not given up, and Moscow did not fall. Probably the Soviet peoples will to resist and ultimately destroy Germany started there and then.

Quarterly financial numbers have a reasonably good expectation for HP. However, from a share perspective, the HP armies are still being beaten by the major cataclysm of Mark Hurd leaving the CEO job in early August.

While struggling in this entourage, HP’s strategy seems to be the very same one Hurd designed and left for his successor to inherit. And Wall Street is not buying it. The biggest army by revenue, its strategy to recover capitalization value was not there.

And its master leader, its CEO, has not publicly shown up three weeks after his official start date…

If History repeats itself, Léo Apotheker should pop up soon, and as the Soviet people did, the market will certainly need a propaganda masterpiece to spark recovery and confidence in putting HP where it should be from that very moment.

Show up before Moscow falls, Léo. The subpoena matter at the SAP trial is a smoke curtain. You can, you should, you ought to. 

 

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Incrediboy’s Syndrome

 

Lovely story the one in The Incredibles movie, wasn’t it? Everybody can easily recall the glory days when Mr. Incredible, on his own, was carrying on his war against evil. Alone.

Focus on minute 4…

So admired was he that one of his fans, a young teenager, wanted to emulate him. Incrediboy was the name the kid chose, and gallantly offered his services to Mr. Incredible who bitterly rejected the offering. “I work alone”, said he.

Incrediboy was pissed off and seriously outraged, to the point that years later, when superheroes had been called off, he had amassed an enormous wealth and power to turn himself into the most fearful super-villain ever, Syndrome by name. Rejected by superheroes as a teenager, he had turned to the opposite side, and changed his personal aims to end up with any trace of past superheroes and end up dominating the world, as all decent super-villains usually do, of course.

I would say everybody knows how the story ended.

But now we have the modern version of Incrediboy trying to imitate superheroes again… True that todays Incrediboy looks more like the retired Mr. Incredible before he resumed his past glorious times, but still an Incrediboy with a big big big post traumatic stress syndrome…

He as well tries once and again to be like his hero… and his hero kingly ignores him once and again…

Being like this as Incrediboy, we resist ourselves to imagine how he’d be like as Syndrome.

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