The oracle at Compiegne

 

The even forces, at least on paper, that were standing in late 1939 at either sides of the Maginot Line, would not imagine that less than 6 months later, the initially outnumbered German army would inflict the French the worst defeat ever.

22 years earlier, Germany surrendered to the French. The French required the Germans to sign off the Armistice in a train wagon at Compiegne. The French kept the wagon as a monument to the French Victory and as well to the German Defeat. Fro the French, the German surrender of 1918 was a revenge to the German victories in the 1870s, and so it was carved on stone near the place where the train wagon was exhibited.

When in June 1940 the German flags were unfurled in Paris, the French High Command still had to formally sign its surrender, and they were called to do so at, precisely, Compiegne, and precisely in the same train wagon that the French had kept. Fro the German Leader, as important as the victory itself, the Germans were seeking revenge to the limit of humiliation. He instructed specifically his generals to set the ceremony that way. Anecdotally, the Germans made and intentional stop in front of the stone carving before the actual surrender signing.

We have witnessed recently the Oracle-SAP case verdict. It states that the latter has to pay the former the highest ever penalty in copyright infringement cases. Oracle’s victory sounds pretty much like the worst defeat ever inflicted to SAP.

It looks, however, like the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle is looking after his own Compiegne… Not really necessary, not fundamentally changing the lawsuit case, appearing more as a token gesture than a fundamental part of the trial, is this really something beyond a simple wish of humiliation?

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The German Choice

 

Since 1943, many German cities were heavily and systematically bombed by the USAAF and the RAF. The Allies strategy at that time was to use these bombings as a means to help their Soviet friends in the Eastern Front and to weaken Germany in preparation for invading Europe in the West, planned for 1944.

Hamburg, in Northern Germany, was one of the cities included in the bombing plan. After the war, in fact, as many other German cities, it had to be reconstructed from the ground. Anglo-Americans called the bombing of Hamburg Operation Gomorrah. Explicit enough, we’d say.It lasted 8 days and 7 nights.

One of those nights, in late July 1943, hundreds of American bombers approached the city, and started dropping its cargo. Several thousand feet below, a woman had to hurry to the bomb shelter as the nearby buildings started to be hit by the bombs, and fire caught in them. After several days and nights of no sleep, bombing targeted her neighborhood.

The woman was trying to race among hundreds of other women, men, elders and children. Her husband, an infantry officer in Russia, was not there to help, so she had to take care of her three children, aged 2, 5 and 7.

Panic was all over the place, shelters to few and small, were almost fully packed, so being the closest one impossible to enter, the woman had to go on to the next one.

More bombing, more buildings scrambling down, and the fire. Fire tornadoes everywhere (Gomorrah, remember?) with flames roaring so loud that is was impossible to hear the screaming and yelling from the people, from the women, form the elders, from the children, no matter how collapsed the streets were, hos close to each other people were.

The woman was exhausted, and so were her children. Carried along by the mass of people looking for protection, she could just hold her youngest boy in one arm, and hold her 5 year old boy with another. She had no more hands, and just seconds to decide.

But it was the toughest decision in her life. Which kid should she hold, who should run the risk to be left behind? She looked at her eldest, a 7 year old girl, and instructed instructed her to hold her mother’s skirt tight and keep running behind her, as close as she could.

The little girl could not make it. The crowd overran her, and she lost her mother and brothers ahead. Her brothers, held my their mother, made it to the bomb shelter. Two years later, they were still alive. the 5 year old boy, decades later, became one of the directors at Dresdner Bank in the Bundesrepublik Deutschland.

One of us met him years ago, in fact. This is not a fake story.

What choice do you make when you know that whatever you choose you are going to lose?

That German woman had to face a tough choice that would haunt her the rest of her life.

We would not like to be in the shoes of other Germans who have to make very hard decisions these days. And whatever they choose, they will suffer quite much.

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Collateral triangles

 

Every war has, besides its expectable casualties, additional damages that could not be avoided, predicted or foreseen.

In recent wars, the term “collateral damages” has been coined to justify or explain these unexpected damages.

We see a potential collateral damage to a company that has nothing to do, in principle, with the Oracle-SAP case, which is Hewlett-Packard. As much as its current CEO, Leo Apotheker, used to be CEO at SAP, and as much as he was a potential witness to the case, but managed not to show up, this could impact HP’s reputation somehow.

Now, at the same time, we are able to see a potential second collateral effect which might benefit both SAP and HP.

Should SAP shares lose enough value due to the trial’s verdict, it could be a potential good move for HP to do a little M&A with SAP… Still, a careful move to make, as it would be a very special situation for the former SAP CEO to acquire SAP precisely, when SAP just recently came out from the trial like it did.

Nothing against an ex-CEO to purchase as CEO somewhere else his former company. After all, HP PSG’s head, Todd Bradley, used to be CEO at Palm, and Palm is now part of HP, isn’t it? It’s more about the triangle made of SAP Ex-CEO now HP CEO – Trial – Shares losing value…

Interesting theory in our opinion, definitely worth blog posting.

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The missing crook

 

President Richard Nixon stepped down from office in 1973 after the arch-famous Watergate scandal. He basically had been responsible for having placed illegal systems to spy the Democrat Party.

Despite his attempts to defend his case with his famous “I’m not a crook” quote, he was over.

The Oracle-SAP trial that has ended so far with the jury’s verdict of a $1.3 billion to be paid by the latter to the former, and has been based on some sort of spying the arch-enemy too. We guess that, as in 1973 the internet was not so developed, no downloading of anything was really possible at that time.

The only conceptual difference we are finding between Watergate and SAP-gate is the missing crook. We have no one taking full accountability for the theft, and standing up to try to defend himself declaring he is not a crook.

The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, aka Big Mouth Larry, certainly has tried to make Leo Apotheker, former SAP CEO, to take the Nixon role, but the latter swiftly avoided to serve as a witness before the jury.

Now, what might have the perception of Leo Apotheker in the market been? It could very well be a bad one, meaning that his no-show might have created an impression of cowardice or having something to hide. Should this be the case, it could very well impact HP seriously as well.

After the recent announcement by HP of its latest quarterly results, HP shares came up quite sharply, so good the results were compared to expectations. The day after, almost all the gains have been lost again, leaving HP’s share value halfway between Monday’s closure and Tuesday’s opening. Could it eventually have happened because having SAP been fined so much, the market thinks Leo Apotheker had something to do with that?

We do not have, of course, any proof of any involvement at all of Leo Apotheker in the TomorrowNow case. And we do not intendo to suggest he has the slightest guilt. However, we still think it could very well happen that people could think the way we described.

What suggests as well that HP should be cautious and careful about this, and keep an eye open to avoid being “collaterally damaged” by this verdict. HP is not completely unlinked to the case, at least from a market perception perspective.

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Beside America’s Cup

 

The jury has spoken, and they have decided SAP is almost as guilty as the oracle anticipated. The bill? $1.3 billion, close enough to the oracle’s demands, which rose to at least $1.6 billion, to quote Safra Catz, co-President at the oracle.

Precisely Safra Catz is probably one of the happiest persons in the industry, as she has been the key exec from the oracle, even beyond the Pontifex Maximus. Her two examples did make the magic on the jury, comparing the case to stealing a $2,000 watch and selling it for just $20, and the analogy based on Warner Bros copying illegally Disney’s movies. Clear examples, though arguable in our opinion,

We honestly thought the jury would take longer to decide, and its verdict would be closer to SAP’s position than to the oracle’s. We thought Big Mouth’s boasting all over, plus a real understanding of the oracle’s argumentation would have made the jury think that way.

Thinking a bit about the case, we think we missed some very important matters, the first one being that the jury is made of average common people, away from technicalities. Example’s like Catz’ have really been worth telling.

The second one is more related to the oracle’s ability to use the case for setting example of what happens when property, intellectual or physical, is stolen. Americans, by tradition, history and character, are extremely sensitive to private property. And this sort of result is what happens to thieves in America, the jury has said.

The third one is linked to the oracle’s ability to place SAP as a careful thief who was knowing exactly what they were doing, and kept on until they were caught. From the very beginning, the message from the oracle (supported by early declarations from the Pontifex Maximus) was pointing SAP as criminals against property.

The fourth one has been smartly played by the oracle too. They could not get hold of Leo Apotheker, and his absence might have been taken by the jury as cowardice, or his intention to hide something. We always thought he should have served as witness, but the possible damage for not having been there might have been too much.

Certainly exemplary, the case has anyway set a record in this kind of cases… Another trophy to stand beside the America’s Cup for the Pontifex.  

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No more hiding, yet hidden

 

Several months ago, Hewlett-Packard announced its partnership with Bletchley Park for its WWII archives digitization.

For those readers who might not be familiar to the name, Bletchley Park is the site where the main activities by the Intelligence Services took place in order to decipher and break German codes.

According to Sir Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister during the war, Bletchley Park was the British Secret Weapon that allowed them to win the war. In fact they succeeded in breaking the German Code used by the famous Enigma machines, and ever since, German communications were transparent to the Allies despite having had the most technologically advanced cipher system. By the way, Germans never learnt before they surrendered their code had been broken, so sure they were about it.

Leó Apotheker is proving certainly some special skills which we find uncommon in a standard CEO. Not only he has smartly avoided any distraction related to the SAP-Oracle trial that is in its final stages, but as well shows some genuine sense of humour.

Furthermore, we think we have detected some additional skill. If we read carefully the press note in the previous link, we notice that just after the humoristic comment about actually being in Palo Alto during the conference call with analysts where HP posted latest financial results, he made a reference to Oracle’s attempt to distract him calling the latter “a competitor”.

Many journalists and online media have taken Oracle’s acquisition of Sun a sort of war declaration to HP, as Oracle had never been before in the hardware business. HP has claimed always Oracle as a partner, even after Mark Hurd’s “defection” in late summer 2010 to Oracle.

But we believe the term “competitor” was not really used just by chance. As the humoristic remark by Apotheker was catching the audience’s attention, he discreetly was sending a warning: Calling Oracle “a competitor” without mentioning directly its name was a way, in our opinion, to accept the war declaration from Oracle. Something like “Hi there, Larry! If you are looking for war, you got it.”

As a matter of fact, there are some facts that might support this thesis:

1. Out from the strategy hints Herr Apotheker offered, it seems clear his intention of boost R&D and software within HP. If this is not targeting Oracle, we guess nothing would. As Oracle got Sun, HP steps into software. If Oracle shows its teeth, HP does the same thing.

2. If HP confirms its dumping of Siebel (part of Oracle) and switches to Salesforce for CRM, this would be a clear war act.

We do not really know how close Herr Apotheker is to HP’s projects with Bletchley Park, but certainly he, on top of other skills, seems to be showing some expertise in coded messages.

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Fred’s car could be colourful too.

 

Imagine Bob (figured name) took Fred’s (figured name) without Fred’s consent and used it to get on time to a business meeting that reported Bob $1 million, money which not have been made by Bob if he had been late to his meeting.

After the meeting, Bob was arrested by the police for having stolen Fred’s car. Bob had not damaged the car, and he opposed no resistance to his arrest. In fact, offered to pay for the gas he actually used. The car was worth $30,000.

Certainly Bob caused Fred some damage, as Fred was not able to use his own car for some time, until the police returned it.

Leaving aside the criminal aspect (the actual theft), would Fred really have any right to claim any of the $30,000, just because the actual usage of the car was a necessary step for Bob in the process of making the $1 million deal?

We would say, not being experts at law, that Bob should pay Fred for the actual gas, the insurance cost for the time Fred could not use his own car, and a certain compensation for any additional cost Fred could have had after his car theft: Transportation, phone calls, Fred’s earnings during hose days in case he needed his car for work, plus a certain additional amount for the hassle.

But probably it would be unfair to have Bob paying the $30,000 just because he used it to make the deal.

Last Friday Safra Catz cared to appear once again to give testimony in SAP-Oracle ongoing trial. And she gave another illustrative masterpiece of analogies which could be better understood by the jurors. 

True that the oracle’s intellectual property has a value. True that it should not have been illegally acquired by TomorrowNow. But the fact it is valuable does not increase or diminish the harm made by SAP to Oracle, which is the fact being tried.

Fair to claim $1.6 billion at least, just because the cost of what SAP used was that much? By the way, it was the oracle who said it was worth $1.6 billion at least…

If SAP made $40 million with the 358 customers that were “safe-passaged” from the oracle, by selling projects at 50% discount on the oracle’s fees, it means that the oracle would have got $80 million at the max if having continued business with those customers.

$80 million, plus $120 million already agreed to be paid for attorney’s costs (no criminal charges dropped as well) seem much more reasonable a sentence to us.

Fred could have said, by the way, his car was worth $60,000, or $90,000, based on sentimental value as well… lots of time washing it in the driveway, lots of happy times spent in the back seat, perhaps… and eventual colourful cool tuning, why not.

Weak argumentation in our opinion to claim that much, Kitty… sorry, “Catz”.

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They are actually telling

 

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So much by so many to so few

 

After the French defeat in the West in 1940, only England opposed the German Third Reich in its quest to dominate Europe.

The next logical step for the Germans was, obviously, to defeat Great Britain. In order to do that, Germany needed to effectively invade the British Islands, a task that required either domination of the seas by the Germans (rather impossible a mission) or an overwhelming superiority in the air in order to protect landing forces.

On paper, Germany’s might was many times stronger than the British, particularly on ground  and air forces. Therefore, decisions were made, and Germany launched a series of massive air attacks against Britain, which were later to be known as The Battle of England.

Air combat was surrounded by a lot of propaganda from the German side, a lot of boasting, if you will, particularly led by the boss of the German Air Force, die Luftwaffe, Reichsmarschall Hermann Göring.

Numerically inferior, lacking pilots and limited in resources, the Royal Air Force resisted for months, using intelligence, technological advantages like radar and the geographical benefit of battling over British territory.

By the end of 1940, a period described by Winston Churchill, His Majesty’s Prime Minister, as “Britain’s darkest hour”, the German High Command gave up any plans for invading Great Britain.

The full merit of that first and decisive British victory was fully due to the very limited number of pilots who served at the Royal Air Force, RAF, and in one of his most memorable quotes, Winston Churchill said that “never in History was so much owed by so many –the British- to so few” –the pilots.

Our opinion, and not more than just that, an opinion, is that after all the propaganda-like boasting and the even violent attacks by the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, with all his might and power, and despite the $120 million attorney’s fees to be paid by SAP, whatever the final result might be, the sentence will be closer to SAP’s position than to the oracle’s.

In this case, the savings for SAP compared to the potential total cost will be massive, so it could be considered an actual victory for the Germans. And in this case too, “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- to so few” –SAPs lawyers and particularly Top Execs, so few dared to appear.

Trying to be fair, however, we could have recommended the Pontifex to quote Winston Churchill too when he served his testimony, instead of boasting like a merchant sailor: “never in the recent years so much was owed by so many –SAP employees and shareholders- because of so few” –the actual “safe-passaged” customers.

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Swift cats

 

Indeed the “trial of the month” moves forward towards its closure. Peculiar trial, dressed with a lot of surrounding attrezzo, from the Pontifex Maximus at the Oracle’s (aka Big Mouth Larry) venomous invectives to all the assumptions made here and there of where all this will end.

There has certainly been a big unbalance between the relative importance of the heavy-weight witnesses presented by the two parts. From the Pontifex himself and co-President Katz from the Oracle to Bill McDermott and Werner Brandt for the Germans, the overall declarations have as well fallen short to expectations, and basically around their original positions: up to $4 billion according to the oracle, not more than $40 million offered by the Germans. And none of the parts have given in more than an inch from those positions.

One of the strongest witnesses from the oracle, however, has been co-President Katz, whose main argument was about rewarding bad behaviour of the Germans. Ironically enough, “Katz” is a German name derived form Katze, meaning cat…

“It’s like stealing a $2,000 watch, selling it for $20, and offering to pay the $20 back as compensation”, she’s declared.

The argument is indeed difficult to respond appropriately after a first thought. It might have made a strong impression in the jurors on behalf of the oracle. as a good finance expert, she has even mentioned figures in her example that are exactly proportional to the figures discussed in the trial. 2,000 is 100 times 20, ad $40 billion is exactly 100 times $40 million. Very, very, very smart from hers.

However, there is a subtle nuance that jurors and judge Phyllis Hamilton should take into account. If someone steals your $2,000 watch, indeed he is stripping you off $2,000. Downloading copyrighted material is basically making a copy of that material. And copying it is not stripping you off the value of that material. So the point is basically that illegally copying copyrighted material, SAP used it for its own benefit without really preventing the oracle from using it on their own. In other words, it’s like an athlete unfairly competing in a running race by using illegal drops that reduce the competitive advantage of a better honest runner.

And this id probably why the actual damages (only 358 customers switched from the oracle to TomorrowNow, according to information available online) have been so small compared to the theoretical potential.

Not denying that SAP behaved bad, the already settled amount of $120 for criminal charges, plus damage reparations of $40 really sounds reasonable in our ears., though this is just an opinion of ours, who do not claim at all any expertise in law matters.

What we really are impressed with is Katz’s rationale and argumentation… together with a much more senior and mature attitude than her boss’. Indeed swift, indeed smart, indeed subtle, and probably very powerful. No surprise she sits where she does at the oracle.

Hard and tough rival in the internal struggle for the Pontifex heritage you got there, Mark Hurd…

 

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Quest for blood

 

The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle is not really willing to give up in his quest for blood from SAP. He wanted Apotheker’s, who fundamentally has been ignoring the case and has probably made a new record in air mileage in the last days.

Having failed there, still they got a heavy-weight official today, Bill McDermott, SAP co-CEO. It looks as if the Pontifex will not give up without a sip. A sip from SAP, naturellement.

Bill McDermott has formally apologized. Yes he has, and this is very positive for him and for SAP.

However, the oracle’s lawyers have repeatedly insisted in knowing if blood was spilt after the case within SAP.

For God’s sake, what else do these guys want? What is the point? Does that really increase or reduce the guilt SAP has admitted and (now) even apologized for? Does that impact the damages SAP has offered to (reasonably) pay for?

As we said in a previous recent post, frankly, they are beating the Germans up too much, as President WIlson and his European allies did in 1919 with the Treaty of Versailles that ended WWI.

The Pontifex’ thirst seems pretty much like a vampire’s… Twilight’s Vulturi?

 

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Bad Germans

 

It has been reported that the priests and the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle might be about to wrap their case up in the known copyright trial against SAP.

I guess it was an easy job for them, for in a nutshell, their summary is probably very similar to the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, which ended World War I.

As in that occasion, the message looks like:

Point One: The Germans are bad. The bill is $1.6 billion.

Point Two: The Germans are veeeeeeeeeeeeeery baaaaaaaaaaaaad. The bill is $1.6 billion.

Point Three: In case of doubt, please review previous Points One and Two. And the bill, in case of doubt, is $1.6 billion.

Very convenient and timely, as Germany recently finished WWI reparation payments, and therefore they are fresh for paying. $1.6 billion, should we have failed in hinting the bill.

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In the bowels of the oracle

 

In order to preserve his anti-monarchist ideas, Oliver Crowell invaded Scotland around 1650. One of the parties whose support he tried to get to his side was the Scottish Church, which eventually had some sympathy for recently crowned King Charles II.

Stubborn Presbyterians, the Scots were difficult to convince, and insisted in their position. Oliver Cromwell gave a famous appeal in an all-out attempt to make the Scots realize the wrong in their support to monarchy. “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you might be mistaken”.

As the third week for the trail between Oracle and SAP starts, we realize on our side that the Pontifex Maximus, aka Big Mouth Larry, does not seem to give in an inch on his strategy, and once more he insists in justifying his monetary demands on the level of guilt he tries to prove on SAP officials.

With Léo Apotheker fundamentally ignoring the case and wandering around the world, the next biggie on the stand will be Bill McDermott, co-CEO at SAP.

Again, out stubborn Pontifex insists in a useless strategy, as after having admitted guilt, the point is not how criminal SAP could have been, but more determining the size of the damage that SAP caused the oracle. Whatever SAP officials say, this won’t really increase nor diminish guilt at SAP. It’s the value of the damage what matters, as clearly Judge Phyllis Hamilton has understood and instructed jurors to consider.

If Big Mouth Larry has any true friends, one of them should speak up to him and, trying to help him getting rid of his stubbornness, “beseech him, in the bowels of the oracles, think it possible he might be mistaken”.

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Huff and Puff

 

… said the Big Bad Wolf… But this time it was the brick house.

We are afraid the Pontifex Maximus’ bluff was just that. A bluff.

Where is the evidence, Big Mouth Larry? Whose credibility is now at the stake?

You have live long enough to have learnt the closer you get to the fire, the more you get burnt, Pontifex.

 

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Larry San & Lieutenant Apotheker

 

Cio-Cio San was her name. The teenage geisha who broke with her culture, family and traditions to engage and marry Lieutenant Pinkerton, an American naval officer assigned to Japan in the late 19th Century. Called back to duty in the US, he disappeared for a while, leaving poor Cio-Cio longing for his return.

At least this is the story that the arch-famous opera by Puccini depicts.

We believe the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, aka Big Mouth Larry has been as much as Cio-Cio San craving for Apotheker. At least this is the story we conclude after the arch-famous tune by him in the press.

But Lt. Apotheker was, effectively, called to duty in the US when hired as new CEO for HP, and poor Larry San could only wait and hope.

Like in Puccini’s tragedy, finally Lt. Apoteheker has shown up in Japan… and like in Puccini’s opera, still this won’t avoid a tragic ending, we think.

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Incidentally, we would like to mention the irony behind having Lt. Apotheker popping up precisely in the country of the rising SUN… Small, but still some consolation for Larry-San though.

Commie Pontifex

 

While World War I was at its peak, say 1917, the Soviet Revolution led by Vladimir Lenin was as well about to succeed. Lenin’s plans were based on support form people’s masses and organizations, one of the biggest and most important being, of course, the Army. As the Army was engaged at war, mainly against the German Empire of the time, Lenin desperately needed to withdraw Russia from the war at any cost, surrendering it needed. What actually happened thanks to Lenin’s propaganda skills. Russia surrendered to the German Armies, which were in fact occupying part of the Russian Empire territory, signed the Brest-Litovsk Agreement, and went home.

In order to get the Russian Army quit the war and join his ranks, Lenin mastered a convincing motto: "(World War I) is a war waged between German capital against Anglo-French capital but fought by workers”. He basically was calling Russian soldiers to disengage from a cause that was not theirs.

As the Russian commoner enlisted in the Imperial Army of Czar Nicholas Romanov was indeed from humble extraction and relatively fed up with the Romanov aristocracy, it was relatively easy for Lenin to succeed. The Russian High Command found itself with an unexpected enemy rising from inside that ultimately led to a dramatic defeat and an endless suffering of the people for decades. The Russian Army turned from fighting Germany to fighting local aristocracy. In other words, from fighting the technical and theoretical enemy (the Germans) to fighting a closer one which could be seen as more directly responsible of their suffering and poverty, ie their own aristocrats and landlords.

So the war against Germany was “technically” correct, but too high-level and far a concept. Russian soldiers where inflamed by Lenin to think shorter and focus on matters closer to them, to their daily lives.

If we think about an average juror serving at the Oracle-SAP trial, one thing we could consider is the actual way he might think. After all, an average juror is very much like an average citizen. They are on fixed income or salary, they have average rents… they are in fact far from the glamour and high standards of billionaires fighting about billionaire figures that are simply too big to fit in an average citizen’s mind. The numbers and figures talked during trials are way out of reach and beyond possibilities and imagination of average citizens. Therefore, even if legal argumentations could be technically correct, it’s fairly likely that a juror may think that this is a war waged by billionaires that just want to increase their obscene fortunes, but fought by regular employees.

Winning an jury trial is about winning the minds of jurors. It’s not about convincing experts, lawyers, technicians. And we think this is what probably Big Mouth Larry, Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, was aiming to when delivering the messaging he did in his testimonials on Monday. A technically correct argumentation, supported by Safra Catz’ moderate position, with the personal touch about the salaries of 100,000 families.

Now, for an average juror, all this sympathetic touch said by the guy owning the 6th biggest fortune in the world, the guy that spends thousands of dollars a day to sustain his standards of living, that affords teaming with other millionaires to yacht around the world, might sound a bit hypocritical. If the salary of 100,000 Oracle employees depended on the $4 billion Oracle is demanded on SAP and the Pontifex Maximus is so concerned with that, what the heck prevents him to spare $4 bn from his personal fortune to cover the problem? Wouldn’t he recover it sooner than later, so successful a businessman he is at Oracle?

We think that for the moment, Oracle’s strategy, technically correct from certain aspects, has missed completely the main target, which is winning for themselves the jurors minds and favor. It probably has not been the best choice to get the Pontifex to deliver the first heavy artillery blows, and they have missed who they need to convince. The battle’s not about technicalities that, by the way, fail to have documented support. It’s about convincing commoners about their cause being fair.

We understand it can be really difficult for a billionaire to think commie, but a commander at war should not forget considering the battlefield (ie jurors’ minds) specificities when planning battle. And, yes, Pontifex Maximus: This is something your dear Sun Tzu wrote.

 

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A tantalised Pontifex

 

It looks that Big Mouth Larry is seriously taking the challenge we suggested him some days ago.

As a matter of fact, he’s paid for some private investigations to find out the pharmacist’s whereabouts. Well, this sort of game is supposed to be carried out individually. Come on, Big Mouth, it’s no fun if someone else tells you where Léo is and you do not find out yourself… unless you tell us that instead of tennis, you are playing this with your friend Mark. Oh, yes, Mark has some experience in private investigations indeed, doesn’t he?

Yet we are puzzled about the point he’d want to prove. Assuming for a minute he found out the guy is anywhere out of legal reach to force him to serve the subpoena at the trial the oracle is waging against SAP, if Law can not grab him, it is absolutely useless. Sounds a bit paranoid, in our opinion.

So Big Mouth Larry, aka The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, would be punished for his paranoia by knowing where the guy is, but not really being able to grab him, like poor old Tantalus, condemned by the Gods to starve in Hades below a rich fruit tree that raised it’s branches as soon as Tantalus tried to grasp any throughout eternity… which, for us at least, seems to be a heck of a long time, incidentally.

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Sultans of suing

 

We are sure that if we mentioned Dire Straits, every body would recall its unique style, mainly driven by lead singer and composer, Mark Knopfler. Some people consider him the best guitar player ever, and his live performances all over the world are memorable. Sultans od Swing, Tunnel of Love, Telegraph Road, Gold…Many hits come to our minds, but from them all, it is the famous duet with Sting, Money for Nothing, what draws our attention more, together with Private Investigations.

Buzz around another Mark comes back. The Mark Hurd again has bounced up again in the press, as some additional documentation around the fishy Fisher has come to light. Beyond an inappropriate relationship between hard Hurd and fishy Fisher, it looks as if hard Hurd disclosed confidential information to the latter. So fishy Fisher seems to be getting a second 15 minutes of glory Andy Warhol said everybody deserved. However, being represented by the famous attorney Gloria Allred, it appears to us that fishy Fisher has had to devote many more than a mere 15 minutes to the “Gloria” to just get again 15 minutes of “glory”… Not sure this is a good ROI, frankly.

As it is already well known by those who have followed the case, hard Hurd settled private whatever issue fishy Fisher had with him. This happened before he was fired by the HP Board, and likely was one of the mean reasons precisely to lose trust in the guy, and ultimately show him the door. The private settlement included an undisclosed amount of dollars to be paid by hard Hurd to fishy Fisher, cost which simply adds up to all other costs hard Hurd has had (including the intangible impact on his family and reputation) for not having thought it twice before behaving like a hormonally unbalanced chimpanzee during mating seasons.

Although Big Mouth Larry quickly came to the rescue, and saved for him the match ball against hard Hurd, we would still question if all the cost he’s taken was really worth it. Is hard Hurd any better personally and professionally than he was at the time in which praise and success were a constant in his service record?

Again that “Money for Nothing” tune in our heads, as we recall part of its lyrics: “Money for nothing, and your chicks for free…” Indeed the private settlement was something hard Hurd was perfectly ready to afford, and certainly big money for fishy Fisher. Certainly “money for nothing” for hard Hurd, given the ROI he got, though this time the chick was not for free precisely, was she?

After all the “private investigations” after the affair, maybe Mark (Knopfler) could eventually consider legal action against Mark (hard Hurd) for copyright infringement by the latter. Private Investigations and Money for Nothing have been in billboards and hitlists for years already. Just to keep lawyers busy, you know, as suing is starting to become a tradition for hard Hurd, we’d say.

By the way, if Knopfler really gets to legal matter, he could as well include copyright infringement about Sultans of Swing. At the end of the day, hard Hurd is really becoming one of the Sultans of “Suing” lately. True or not?

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A question of honor

 

Despite the sound title for this post, unfortunately we are not talking here about the known song by Sarah Brightman, are we? Wonderful performance in Las Vegas a few years ago, highly recommended to those who might appreciate good music.

No show in Las Vegas, but a bit further westward, we are afraid… up to Oakland, as readers do probably expect.

Despite SAP accepting to pay for the attorney’s fees nothing less that $120 million, jurors still have to determine the cost of damages to be paid to the oracle. At the moment, the oracle is claiming about $2.3 billion.

Today we got former Oracle’s President Charles Phillips testifying. Two highlights from his words today.

First, we has declared that the oracle’s software licensing would have been charged to SAP for a fee ranging from $3 to $4 billion. Other sources up that figure to $5 billion, but we will stick to Reuters. Well, we are certainly no experts in software fees, but even in the case that TomorrowNow’s full plan to take customers from the oracle’s had completely succeeded, it seems quite an unreasonable figure. We are not sure at all that the oracle would have had equivalent revenue for all those customers. Still, Mr. Phillips played the role he was expected to as a former top executive at the oracle, and the figure was thrown in to justify the $2.3 billion claim, and even make it look reasonable in front of jurors.

Second, and most important in our opinion, we would like to highlight the actual words by our Testosterone Champion: "There's sort of an honor among warriors here that we can compete fiercely, but we don't take each other's software," Phillips said.

Oh, puh-leeeze...!!!!!!!

In a gentlemen’s atmosphere, Testosterone Champion’s (TC for short) words would have been very welcome, would not have drawn any attention, and would have been understood as utterly polite. But since the beginning of the friction between the two software titans, back in 2007, we would not precisely compare it to a gentlemen’s duel in the times of Louis XIV, would we? Big Mouth

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Larry’s corroding and aggressive words, to begin with, followed by all the documents and evidence that has been published so far.

If we review TC’s  relatively recent past, it does not really look that the word “honor” is something he has not had to look up carefully before declaring anything today. More than 8 years in an extra-marital affair, and his move to IBM ally Infor (while all the buzz around Mark Hurd to the oracle’s and so forth) do not precisely prove he’s ever known what “honor” really means.

We do not take each other’s software, but we may take ourselves to hang around for years with women other than our own wife, or we eventually take Oracle’s confidential info and use it at Infor?

We do not really believe people are made of two personalities, one of which develops at work the other one at home. When we talk about individuals, we are basically talking of single entities that will basically behave the same way in either scenario. So if you betray your family, which should be sacred for you, are you telling me you will be able to keep loyal to a company that just pays you a salary, no matter how big, should the occasion arise? We are afraid we will not swallow that one, TC…

Maybe Apotheker was not the best choice for HP, and maybe Apotheker is not really the right witness to call, but TC is surely not the best example to preach “honor”, as Mark Hurd was not either a paradigm of the Standards of Business Conduct he preached for years at HP.

 

Questions? Ask Mark

 

The Chosen One has apparently declined to attend the oracle’s party… Too bad, we think.

People have a remarkable tendency to talk about famous individuals and celebrities, particularly if the gossip around is not related to an immaculate reputation. Mass media are made by people, and addressing people. They are not an exception. And if someone with the fame and reputation of Big Mouth Larry finger points someone in particular, that person is ultimately screwed.

HP is claiming that the Chosen One would be getting distracted from his new duties as CEO. Well, a guy born in Germany, educated in Israel, living in France, now moving to California, having been able to reach the CEO job at SAP, enjoying a team of executive assistants and backed by smart people leading the different businesses HP is made of, speaking five languages (one of them German, another one Hebrew, which is written “backwards”) can live with that for a few weeks, we think.

HP’s argument sounds weak. And a poor defense is sometimes equivalent to a strong offensive from the enemy. A weak defense is just providing ammunition to the Pontifex Maximus. Not showing up defaults to the Pontifex being right, and unwillingness to assume responsibilities after having left his former employer. We agree the Pontifex is not really proving elegant at all, and his style matches, in our opinion, much more the one you see in Gangs of New York than an educated discussion. But precisely for that, we would not advise to give a poor excuse to stay off.

If the Chosen One is innocent, he should actually leverage the opportunity to demonstrate his innocence, particularly in a case like this one, where Big Mouth Larry is providing a hell lot of free publicity.

Standing up as well can have the total opposite effect than the one insistently sought by the Pontifex Maximus: Strong leadership and principles. Something that, by the way, HP badly needs. If the Chosen One wants to show he cares for his new company, he should think of his reputation as an asset he is not the sole and single owner of. His reputation and his style is as well an asset of whatever company he works for in a given point in time.

Keeping the cleanest possible reputation is, therefore, something he accepted owing to his employer and his fellow employees since the moment he signed his contract and assumed responsibility. Step up, Léo. You are obliged to do so to yourself, your family, your business partners, your customers and, of course, the employees you lead. In case you had questions, Léo, you can always give Mark Hurd a call about the topic.

  

 

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