About face

 

In about 326 b.C. Alexander the Great reached India after having created the mightiest empire to date. He had built that empire based in his will and determination together with the support of his military commanders in less than10 years since he succeeded his dad as King of Macedon.

After having overstretched his resources and capabilities beyond any conceivable limit, he had to face that India was too much, too complex, to far away, too powerful per se.

Alex did not realize this, and in fact he launched the invasion.

But his up-to-then-loyal commanders understood better their own limitations in front of India, and made their own U-turn and headed home.

This lack of support forced Alex to head back too… and in less than three years, he was actually dead.

His generals ripped the Empire, split is into fiefs and Macedon’s ruling on the mightiest empire on earth was over for ever.

The once almighty empire of RIM has reached India… and commanders supporting yesterday’s success are realizing that their India is too much for their Alex…

 

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At least they bark…

 

Casually seeing in a sidewalk or in a park a small dog standing up at a bigger one, actually challenging it with a lot of noisy barking is not something readers are unfamiliar to, we’d say…

So here we have the small dog standing up…

But…

Where dos the small dog go when the big dog blows back?

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Flies against windows

 

Springtime is a lovely season… flowers, trees, weather…

Insects and bugs pop up in Spring too, don’t they? So it is not really strange to see flies behind windows (precisely!) glasses bumping once and again their heads not realizing there is a thick glass barrier which prevents them from getting out.

“Bump”… “bump” again… and so it goes until some monstrous human ends up smashing them precisely against the barrier they could not overcome.

And here we have our Perspiration Champion once more bumping and bumping… and not really able to get out of the windows …

Even after trying, in a desperate move, to engage with his former fellow Elop at Nokia, still he bumps and bumps once, twice… and still not realizing what is going on.

Probably it is a matter of time that the fly swat in the hands of the market’s common sense will be wielded mercilessly… Hopefully by that time, Apple, Google, and even Palm (sorrysorrysorry, HP) are strong enough by themselves to prevent WWF declaring flies a protected species…

 

 

Luke 6:39 in the Bible

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Faust 3.0, cleverly disguised.

 

So finally the eternal promise will make it to mere mortals… Oh, yes, Palm will finally put his tablet in the market, and make it available to mere mortals.

Palms tables, under Palm’s OS, will be sold starting this summer, at $499.

Cleverly disguised as HP’s, naturellement, as mortal sin was cleverly disguised as an apple (precisely!) when the Devil, cleverly disguised as a Snake, offered the fruit to Eve (“bite it, and you’ll be like God”)…

We can figure Léo Apotheker, cleverly disguised as Faust 3.0, handing on a tablet to a mortal sinner… (“buy it, and you’ll be like Jobs”)…

What makes us think that the apple in the logo should go to HP more than to Apple actually…

 

And… who is talking about the great loser? We mean, of course, Todd Bradley… SVP for Personal Systems Group, declining… against the rising star, Palm head, Rubinstein… Was Todd not a former CEO at Palm?

 

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Really!?

 

In the 17th Century, Sir Isaac Newton laid the foundations of Universal Gravitation in his Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica. Tradition tells us that he realized evidence after having been hit by a falling apple (precisely) while he was sitting beneath a tree. The obvious thing, Universal Gravitation, took millennia from mankind to be understood.

Archimedes of Syracuse, sometime in the third Century before Christ, suddenly realized the principles of buoyancy while having a bath. He had been for a long time trying to figure out how to calculate how much pure gold was contained in a crown, without melting it. And suddenly, inspiration hit him, and something evident was fully understood.

Copernicus as well realized the evidence of heliocentric cosmology in the 16th Century… and so we may find dozens of examples of obvious things realized after years or centuries of study.

All these guys would have been awarded Nobel Prizes should these have existed when they were alive.

Today we have discovered a new potential candidate for Nobel Prize awards in the figure of SAP co-CEO McDermott, who offers his company for alliance with HP.

Leaving aside his obvious comments, it’s the reading between the lines that catches our attention, as we see there a certain willingness to achieve that alliance. What certainly means there is some sort of motivation, and some benefit.

Probably still hurt by the not so old trial about Intellectual Property (IP) that ended in the biggest defeat in the industry, according to the result, SAP is still trying to inflict some kind of damage to its arch-enemy Oracle while granting some kind of “protection” for the future.

 

 

 

 

Facts:

Léo Apotheker served as CEO for SAP. Today, he still is CEO at HP.

SAP execs have moved to HP since Léo Apotheker, aka Faust 2.0, was hired as CEO at HP:

- Marge Breya, new General Manager for Software and Solutions at HP.

- Martin Homlish, new Chief Marketing Officer at HP.

- Bill Wohl, new Chief Communications Officer at HP.

Oracle owns Sun Microsystems, direct rival of HP.

Oracle is in quarrels both with HP and SAP.

Oracle hurt HP by hiring former HP CEO Mark Hurd after his scandalous exit from HP.

HP recently gave up Oracle’s Siebel CRM to move on to Salesforce.com’s CRM.

HP’s tradition to hire top execs from other companies and ending up acquiring, merging or absorbing them. Was not a certain Todd Bradley former CEO at Palm, now the jewel of the crown at HP wth all the WebOS buzz? (by the way… where have the HP pre-Palm smartphones gone?).

Some months ago, when SAP was fighting at court with Oracle, SAP’s market cap was at about $50B, HP was beyond $100B, and HP had plenty of cash to be in an even stronger position to force a take over. Today market caps of both companies are at parity… which may ease a “natural merger”…

We spoke about this, which seemed obvious, even when McDermott’s speech was totally different from what we read these days…

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Faust 2.1

 

Angels were created, according to Christian and Hebrew tradition, before men and women. Angels were far more perfect, and certainly less tied to human limitations.

However, in the beginning of times, one of them rose against his creator. Against God Himself.

He was the most beautiful of them all, and claiming his own merit based on that, he led nothing less than one third of the angels supporting his rebellion. He would not accept to bow down to mankind after having discovered God’s plan of salvation. He would not accept being second best to creatures not so perfect as him, to Sons and Daughters of God.

Men and women were not perfect, after all.

Now we have our own version of Faust dwelling into these troublesome and difficult waters… and moving one step ahead. After all, he is not unfamiliar to Hebrew traditions, we suppose.

He will not launch a product which is not perfect…

Leaving aside any definition of what perfect exactly means in his mind, should we understand that when WebOS is out there it will really be perfect? Will the tablets or smartphones that run there really achieve that?

Several million people all over the world may have something to say about that… and the same wrongly understood sense of pride which ultimately led Lucifer to rebellion floats in the atmosphere, as Satan’s shadow floated over Faust through Mephistopheles, according to the German legends that our dear 21st-Century Faust is probably not unaware of.

Lucifer is also know as The Fallen Angel… if he continues the trend of the stock value of the company he is leading, he will soon match the same “perfection” as the former.

 

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Legacy’s cost

 

“Number 2 is just the first one of the losers”, says a very famous motorbike racer who has been World Champion many times (still not retired) who loves being the fastest one.

This would be too radical a view when we have a look to any market, where there is not just one winner. It would actually be impossible under antitrust regulations.

However, the quote from Valentino Rossi (which is the biker’s name, as many bike fan’s might have guessed) can be understood in the context of what is currently going on in the smartphone market (and eventually in the tablet’s too), where old kings are running the serious risk of being phased out from their former positions.

Of course there can be space for them, and we actually believe there will always be, in fact. But it is really hard to accept being below second rank after past history dominance.

RIMM, Nokia, though still hitting very important volumes, might well be in that situation. The issue is the trend, clearly decaying, and the chance that they still base their current results on legacy. .

Legacy of corporate business and systems that have an enormous cost of change. Legacy of users who are provided a phone by their companies that might be used for personal purpose. Legacy from past experiences and resistance to adapt to new phones from previous ones.

But legacy has a deadline and does not last forever. History proves legacy is not enough, and costs empires. Ask the British about India, ask the French about Indochina, ask the Dutch about their Indies, or ask the Russians for the “xxxstan” republics. there is still a Britain, a France, Netherlands and Russia… but where did their empires go?

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The sound of silence

 

It is common to hear that no news equals good news… but it does not really seem the case for the guys at Microsoft regarding their mobile phone story.

Silence, as in that famous tune by Simon and Garfunkel, can be really loud, even more than the cheerful reporting when success is there, like it happened with Kinect.

Silence as well about the potential upgrades that are badly needed does not help either. When will the famous “cut & paste” basic feature show up?

The more they wait, the smaller chunk of the pie they’ll get, though they still have the potential benefit from the corporate and enterprise market, that to much extent has a Microsoft based IT. But even there, RIMM and Nokia can be too far it they keep on slowing down, or if they fail to move fast. Even the slowest of the slowest, that is, Palm, might move ahead of them if they ever start. Particularly if they deliver a confusing message to this segment.

The market does not wait for sound names and brands if they do not really deliver.

 

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Cheap fuel

 

As long as cars need fuel, its price (as insurance’s, maintenance’s, taxes…) ought to be added to the total cost of owning one.

Cheap gas or lower taxes do not guarantee any given car is better than other using a different type of fuel or subject to higher taxes.

It’s the total ownership and driving experience what matters.

And, by the way, the fact that a given fuel type today might be cheaper than another does not ensure it won’t change in the future, once the car has been bought.

Not really sure smartphone users have really analyzed their potential expense on apps when they decide to buy one.

We do not therefore think this is necessarily going to provide any effective help to Windows Phone 7 in its struggle against iPhones or Androids… and we are not really sure this is going to make very happy developers, as their financials won’t have the same prospects as the ones provided by developing for Androids or iPhones.

 

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Nothing to fear…

 

… but the sky falling on our heads. This is what Chief Vitalstatistix used to say to his fellow warriors in the Gaul village surrounded by the almighty Roman Legions in the Asterix cartoon books. Many of our readers might remember these comics by Herge.

So how could these few gauls uphold the Roman Empire? Easy: They could count on a certain magic potion that their peculiar druid Getafix was able to prepare, which provided extra strength to whomever drank it, and made them unique and extraordinary.

Steve Jobs seems to be a better druid or potion maker than the guy with the pharmacist name, Herr Apotheker, as the former somehow found the recipe for the magic potion that makes Apple unique.

In fact it seems that Apple has, at least in the tablet market for the moment, nothing to fear but reaching the sky too fast, what, for the matter, would have the same effect than having the sky falling on their heads. Both Chief Vitalstatistix and druid Getafix all in one, Jobs prospects look good in the tablet market. iPad’s dominating about 95% of the market, serious rivals are yet to come, and the only fear for iPad might be iPad 2.

Important to note, the Gauls in the comic books never ever used their potion to expand their village beyond its own walled limits which they held firmly not to prevent villagers from going out, but Romans to get into their Sancta Sanctorum. They did not need to flee nor expand. Happy they were in their spot beside the coast in Bretagne, where they lived much more happily than the Romans who sieged them.

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Next Year in Jerusalem

 

In the times of Roman Emperor Hadrian, second century after Christ, Simon Bar-Kochba led one of the very last Jewish revolts in Judaea against the imposition of Roman religion.

This revolt when pretty much like previous ones: Three years combat, about half a million people dead, including leader Simon Bar-Kochba and the rabbi Akiba, the latter after great torture.

Emperor Hadrian built a new city, Aelia Capitolina, on Jerusalem’s ruins and barred all Jews from coming anywhere near it.

Since then, all over the worlds, Jews have mournfully prayed “Next Year in Jerusalem…”

Palm’s Rubinstein, in recent appearance at Web 2.0 Summit has claimed Palm’s birthright to have owned the smartphone market, should they have done a better job.

In other words, should have they cared for doing a decent job, their “Jerusalem” would have flourished and set as the smartphone reference. But a much stronger power, call it Apple, Nokia or Blackberry, has de facto imposed new rules in the market, and destroyed Palm’s “Jerusalem” with a lot of pain and suffering for the latter.

Ever since, it appears that Palm’s staff keeps on claiming, quite mournfully too, “Next Year in WebOS…”

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Dorothy’s smartphone

 

We have recently learnt Apple is adding The Beatles to iTunes… Good for them! No matter whether Google or Amazon were after the same deal, the UK band goes to Apple.

Easy to say that Apple’s taking The Long and Winding Road… but we prefer to think it is their competition who are going to have some difficulties on the road, and it is for them that the road might be really long and winding.

However long or winding it still looks as well, in our opinion, more like the yellow brick road. And if we think yellow brick roads, we couldn’t avoid thinking of Dorothy, could we?

So here we have Dorothy starting her way on the yellow brick road trying to figure out how to succeed with her smartphone.

First she gets a call from the Scarecrow, who asks her some help to add some brains to his berry-like smartphone… Willing to learn from his experience, Dorothy asks him to join her in her quest for success in the smartphone market.

A short while after, she gets a call from the Lion with no courage. “Hey, Dorothy, need some help here… Got the muscles and the fangs, but I am really afraid of getting out there… Maybe next year if I make it for WebOS 2.0?” So Dorothy invites him as well to join her and the berryphone Scarecrow in their quest for success in the smartphone market.

Later on they find the Tin-Man lacking of heart… “Oh, what a nice android”, they say. “Come join us to look for success in the smartphone market”. The Tin-Man replied: “Indeed I need help: So many versions I have, and so many handset makers I need to support, I do not really know where my heart is, if I have any”.

And so the little group went on looking for success in the smartphone market…

“We’re off to see the Wizard, the wonderful Wizard of Phones, because, because, because, because, becaaaaaaauuuuuuse… because of the magical things he does”…

And they indeed found the Wizard… in a black turtleneck and old jeans, wearing round glasses.

Up to the reader, by the way, to think who Dorothy is… (hint: sweats a lot!)

lovely classic, still, obviously, up to date!

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A drop in the ocean

 

Despite how sound it may look, indeed it is a drop in the ocean. 9,000 HP Slate orders based on a pretty expensive device with a non-optimized OS does not really look impressive.

HP stated before, however, they would have this sort of product after the failure in formally launching it almost a year ago when plans to acquire Palm were already progressing in the Palo Alto based giant.

We actually think this is nothing but a token for HP to prove they are not (completely) dead yet in this segment, plus creating some buzz around what should be more linked to HP in the customers mindshare, WebOS that is. At the same time, HP probably might be legally tied to Microsoft in developing this kind of thing from the times in which Palm was not yet in HP’s radar screen.

So the news is not that much about bathroom-scale tsunamis, but about when HP will finally come up with something tangible in the tablet arena based on WebOS.

Everybody is going to have been there for a while when HP arrives, and the more time it takes for HP, the more difficult it will be for them to really make something remarkable.

The more HP remains with Microsoft, the more they will end like the two blind men in the Bible.

“so ignore them. They are blind guides leading the blind, and if one blind person guides another, they will both fall into a ditch.", Matthew 15:14.

The market will ignore them both.

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