Legacy’s cost

 

“Number 2 is just the first one of the losers”, says a very famous motorbike racer who has been World Champion many times (still not retired) who loves being the fastest one.

This would be too radical a view when we have a look to any market, where there is not just one winner. It would actually be impossible under antitrust regulations.

However, the quote from Valentino Rossi (which is the biker’s name, as many bike fan’s might have guessed) can be understood in the context of what is currently going on in the smartphone market (and eventually in the tablet’s too), where old kings are running the serious risk of being phased out from their former positions.

Of course there can be space for them, and we actually believe there will always be, in fact. But it is really hard to accept being below second rank after past history dominance.

RIMM, Nokia, though still hitting very important volumes, might well be in that situation. The issue is the trend, clearly decaying, and the chance that they still base their current results on legacy. .

Legacy of corporate business and systems that have an enormous cost of change. Legacy of users who are provided a phone by their companies that might be used for personal purpose. Legacy from past experiences and resistance to adapt to new phones from previous ones.

But legacy has a deadline and does not last forever. History proves legacy is not enough, and costs empires. Ask the British about India, ask the French about Indochina, ask the Dutch about their Indies, or ask the Russians for the “xxxstan” republics. there is still a Britain, a France, Netherlands and Russia… but where did their empires go?

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It goes without saying

 

Predicting the future has always been one of the strongest wishes man has had throughout times. Either to benefit from anticipated information, or to prevent eventual bad news, it’s sort of a constant throughout human history.

History is therefore full of examples about predictions, some of which became true (probably by chance), many more of which turned out completely wrong.

One of the most recognized visionaries in the IT world is, no doubt, Steve Jobs at Apple. In fact, his leadership within that company made it possible to actually contribute to define the future of that industry, for the good or for the bad. Apple’s influence is actually tangible in our opinion.

No matter how much this influence might have been (which could be subject to debate depending on personal opinions), it seems not all Jobs’ opinions are exactly right, however. Even successful visionaries might not be completely right.

His widespread comment about mid-sized android tablets being DOA is not exactly what is happening, according to Samsung’s Galaxy tablet performance so far.

Which is not necessarily bad for Apple anyway. Competition is healthy for an industry development, we’d all probably agree.

However, as important in our opinion as what was explicitly said, it is what was not explicitly quoted in Jobs comment. Certainly not usual for Steve Jobs to criticize competition openly or so directly, his strong attack to Android-based tablets indicated his concern about its potential success. In other words, he could have been seeing what Android could achieve…

If he foresaw the results Androids (through Samsung) are apparently achieving so far, then he was not that bad a visionary at the end of the day… and a master of propaganda, the way he presented his forecast.

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Nothing to fear…

 

… but the sky falling on our heads. This is what Chief Vitalstatistix used to say to his fellow warriors in the Gaul village surrounded by the almighty Roman Legions in the Asterix cartoon books. Many of our readers might remember these comics by Herge.

So how could these few gauls uphold the Roman Empire? Easy: They could count on a certain magic potion that their peculiar druid Getafix was able to prepare, which provided extra strength to whomever drank it, and made them unique and extraordinary.

Steve Jobs seems to be a better druid or potion maker than the guy with the pharmacist name, Herr Apotheker, as the former somehow found the recipe for the magic potion that makes Apple unique.

In fact it seems that Apple has, at least in the tablet market for the moment, nothing to fear but reaching the sky too fast, what, for the matter, would have the same effect than having the sky falling on their heads. Both Chief Vitalstatistix and druid Getafix all in one, Jobs prospects look good in the tablet market. iPad’s dominating about 95% of the market, serious rivals are yet to come, and the only fear for iPad might be iPad 2.

Important to note, the Gauls in the comic books never ever used their potion to expand their village beyond its own walled limits which they held firmly not to prevent villagers from going out, but Romans to get into their Sancta Sanctorum. They did not need to flee nor expand. Happy they were in their spot beside the coast in Bretagne, where they lived much more happily than the Romans who sieged them.

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The Consul’s Legions

 

In the times of the Republic, Rome was ruled by the Senate. Senators were elected by the Senate, of course, but all men born within a senatorial family would be elected by birthright.

Senate had the power to declare war, and, therefore, it controlled the State Legions, the Roman Army.

Senate leaders (consuls, proconsuls, praetores or propraetores, province governors) therefore needed agreement and support from the Senate itself to use the Army for carrying on any war that sparked.

Commanding legions and succeeding at a military career was not an uncommon way to gain personal glory or reputation to step up for the commander. In many cases, successful political careers were based precisely in military reputation.

Therefore, political success required commanding legions, and commanding legions required support from the Senate. In other words, it was the Senate who controlled who could succeed in his political career by granting him command of legions, regardless the personal value as military leader of the commander.

If we look to the smartphone market, we see some parallelism with what happens to handset or operating systems manufacturers. Carriers do have a lot of power, and the success of this or that vendor depends quite much on this power. Carriers can, somehow, make or break success for this or that manufacturer. Much is being said, for example, about iPhones being distributed through Verizon, or about Apple’s relationship to carriers.

Successful Apples, Androids, LGs, Samsungs, HTCs, Nokias or RIMMs would depend on how “gracious” carriers might be when granting command of legions.

Back to Rome, we as well can see that if a given individual Senator was resourceful enough (ie rich and smart at the same time), he might enlist and equip his own legions, which would rival the State’s, controlled by the Senate. In fact this is what Gaius Marius did around 100 b.C. Thus, he became independent from the Senate to build his military and political career, pretty successful by the way.

We believe this is what Google might be doing, Rich and smart, they might be planning independence from senatorial carriers. And this might lead to a successful career, similar to Marius’, the only person in Roman History to be elected Consul nothing less than seven times.

Careful, Jobs… Androids might take this road to outflank you.

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Frankenstein’s monster

 

If androids are originally artificially-made human-like entities, sort of robots, then we could consider the monster created by Herr Doktor Frankenstein one of the first ones, if not the very first, according to the wonderful story by Mary Shelley.

Human-like he was indeed, as he was made from dead human body parts her creator stole from cemeteries.

Alive thanks to science, once he was conscious of himself as a live being, the circumstances turned him against his creator and his closest friends, whom he ultimately ended up killing or contributing actively to their deaths.

Google, as a modern Doktor Frankenstein, has too created an Android. Still, Android per se has no sense by itself unless handset vendors use it and actually distribute it.

Open and free an operating system it is, Android can turn to a monster quite easily. And a dangerous one.

Watch out, hardware vendors on Android… some of you may not make it for the next version of the monster. By the way, isn’t it ironic that the Apple you wanted to compete against set already the example you might need to follow?

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