Thursday 25 November 2010

The missing crook

 

President Richard Nixon stepped down from office in 1973 after the arch-famous Watergate scandal. He basically had been responsible for having placed illegal systems to spy the Democrat Party.

Despite his attempts to defend his case with his famous “I’m not a crook” quote, he was over.

The Oracle-SAP trial that has ended so far with the jury’s verdict of a $1.3 billion to be paid by the latter to the former, and has been based on some sort of spying the arch-enemy too. We guess that, as in 1973 the internet was not so developed, no downloading of anything was really possible at that time.

The only conceptual difference we are finding between Watergate and SAP-gate is the missing crook. We have no one taking full accountability for the theft, and standing up to try to defend himself declaring he is not a crook.

The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, aka Big Mouth Larry, certainly has tried to make Leo Apotheker, former SAP CEO, to take the Nixon role, but the latter swiftly avoided to serve as a witness before the jury.

Now, what might have the perception of Leo Apotheker in the market been? It could very well be a bad one, meaning that his no-show might have created an impression of cowardice or having something to hide. Should this be the case, it could very well impact HP seriously as well.

After the recent announcement by HP of its latest quarterly results, HP shares came up quite sharply, so good the results were compared to expectations. The day after, almost all the gains have been lost again, leaving HP’s share value halfway between Monday’s closure and Tuesday’s opening. Could it eventually have happened because having SAP been fined so much, the market thinks Leo Apotheker had something to do with that?

We do not have, of course, any proof of any involvement at all of Leo Apotheker in the TomorrowNow case. And we do not intendo to suggest he has the slightest guilt. However, we still think it could very well happen that people could think the way we described.

What suggests as well that HP should be cautious and careful about this, and keep an eye open to avoid being “collaterally damaged” by this verdict. HP is not completely unlinked to the case, at least from a market perception perspective.

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