Friday 29 October 2010

Oracle 1 – SAP 1

 

About 200 years ago, Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Russia in his attempt of world domination. A mighty army, La Grande Armée, the flagship of the French Grandeur, marched in.

Russians soldiers were no match. Should they have stood to the French, they would have been severely defeated, and Napoleon would have returned victoriously.

So the Russian commanders, in a brilliant move, applied the best strategy they could think of. Taking advantage of the huge and vast territory behind them, they retreated systematically, leaving unopposed fields and land to the French, but making sure first their foe would not find anything (supplies, food, shelter…) that could be of any use.

All the way to Moscow, Russia was devastated before the French advances. Even Moscow itself was set on fire.

Winter arrived, and the comfortable time they planned to spend in Moscow turned into the coldest and hardest winter ever.

Out of supplies that should have been obtained on their victorious march to the capital city, weather conditions and unpreparedness of the Grande Armée made the rest. Very few of those invincible soldiers made it back to France. Very, very few. Hardly 58,000 men out of 700,000.

Germany made a similar mistake in 1941.

The oracle’s well known for his admiration of Sun Tzu’s (The Art of War). But he might want to add some History to his strategy masterbook, and instead of going 3,000 years back in time, read something about Russian History in the last 200 years.

Like Napoleon in 1812, he is preparing himself to attack the Russian SAP, and while making the most of that (up to $2 bn, nothing less), collaterally damage other enemies, namely HP. And, like Napoleon, he’s being caught in the same no-show reply from his enemy.

SAP seems to have sized up the situation, and given they already admitted guilt in the TomorrowNow affair, they are not willing to be plundered and participate in the party that the oracle is trying to set up: “No, thank you!”, they have replied. And they (SAP) plan to shorten the trial as much as they can’t, by arguing there is no point beyond sizing up the amount they might have to pay the oracle.

The oracle has erupted in rage: As important for them as the money SAP would have to pay the oracle, the actual harassment to Léo Apotheker as former SAP CEO as much as incoming HP CEO was important to Big Mouth Larry. Big Mouth’s reaction proves it.

Sorry, kid. Despite historical examples that could not possibly appear in Sun Tzu’s, at the moment SAP’s given you the finger. No party, no fun. You are just going to get dollars, an nothing else. No party, no fun, no sacrificial victim to offer to your hordes of admirers.

The Oracle: 1 – SAP: 1

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