Commie Pontifex

 

While World War I was at its peak, say 1917, the Soviet Revolution led by Vladimir Lenin was as well about to succeed. Lenin’s plans were based on support form people’s masses and organizations, one of the biggest and most important being, of course, the Army. As the Army was engaged at war, mainly against the German Empire of the time, Lenin desperately needed to withdraw Russia from the war at any cost, surrendering it needed. What actually happened thanks to Lenin’s propaganda skills. Russia surrendered to the German Armies, which were in fact occupying part of the Russian Empire territory, signed the Brest-Litovsk Agreement, and went home.

In order to get the Russian Army quit the war and join his ranks, Lenin mastered a convincing motto: "(World War I) is a war waged between German capital against Anglo-French capital but fought by workers”. He basically was calling Russian soldiers to disengage from a cause that was not theirs.

As the Russian commoner enlisted in the Imperial Army of Czar Nicholas Romanov was indeed from humble extraction and relatively fed up with the Romanov aristocracy, it was relatively easy for Lenin to succeed. The Russian High Command found itself with an unexpected enemy rising from inside that ultimately led to a dramatic defeat and an endless suffering of the people for decades. The Russian Army turned from fighting Germany to fighting local aristocracy. In other words, from fighting the technical and theoretical enemy (the Germans) to fighting a closer one which could be seen as more directly responsible of their suffering and poverty, ie their own aristocrats and landlords.

So the war against Germany was “technically” correct, but too high-level and far a concept. Russian soldiers where inflamed by Lenin to think shorter and focus on matters closer to them, to their daily lives.

If we think about an average juror serving at the Oracle-SAP trial, one thing we could consider is the actual way he might think. After all, an average juror is very much like an average citizen. They are on fixed income or salary, they have average rents… they are in fact far from the glamour and high standards of billionaires fighting about billionaire figures that are simply too big to fit in an average citizen’s mind. The numbers and figures talked during trials are way out of reach and beyond possibilities and imagination of average citizens. Therefore, even if legal argumentations could be technically correct, it’s fairly likely that a juror may think that this is a war waged by billionaires that just want to increase their obscene fortunes, but fought by regular employees.

Winning an jury trial is about winning the minds of jurors. It’s not about convincing experts, lawyers, technicians. And we think this is what probably Big Mouth Larry, Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, was aiming to when delivering the messaging he did in his testimonials on Monday. A technically correct argumentation, supported by Safra Catz’ moderate position, with the personal touch about the salaries of 100,000 families.

Now, for an average juror, all this sympathetic touch said by the guy owning the 6th biggest fortune in the world, the guy that spends thousands of dollars a day to sustain his standards of living, that affords teaming with other millionaires to yacht around the world, might sound a bit hypocritical. If the salary of 100,000 Oracle employees depended on the $4 billion Oracle is demanded on SAP and the Pontifex Maximus is so concerned with that, what the heck prevents him to spare $4 bn from his personal fortune to cover the problem? Wouldn’t he recover it sooner than later, so successful a businessman he is at Oracle?

We think that for the moment, Oracle’s strategy, technically correct from certain aspects, has missed completely the main target, which is winning for themselves the jurors minds and favor. It probably has not been the best choice to get the Pontifex to deliver the first heavy artillery blows, and they have missed who they need to convince. The battle’s not about technicalities that, by the way, fail to have documented support. It’s about convincing commoners about their cause being fair.

We understand it can be really difficult for a billionaire to think commie, but a commander at war should not forget considering the battlefield (ie jurors’ minds) specificities when planning battle. And, yes, Pontifex Maximus: This is something your dear Sun Tzu wrote.

 

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A tantalised Pontifex

 

It looks that Big Mouth Larry is seriously taking the challenge we suggested him some days ago.

As a matter of fact, he’s paid for some private investigations to find out the pharmacist’s whereabouts. Well, this sort of game is supposed to be carried out individually. Come on, Big Mouth, it’s no fun if someone else tells you where Léo is and you do not find out yourself… unless you tell us that instead of tennis, you are playing this with your friend Mark. Oh, yes, Mark has some experience in private investigations indeed, doesn’t he?

Yet we are puzzled about the point he’d want to prove. Assuming for a minute he found out the guy is anywhere out of legal reach to force him to serve the subpoena at the trial the oracle is waging against SAP, if Law can not grab him, it is absolutely useless. Sounds a bit paranoid, in our opinion.

So Big Mouth Larry, aka The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, would be punished for his paranoia by knowing where the guy is, but not really being able to grab him, like poor old Tantalus, condemned by the Gods to starve in Hades below a rich fruit tree that raised it’s branches as soon as Tantalus tried to grasp any throughout eternity… which, for us at least, seems to be a heck of a long time, incidentally.

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Sultans of suing

 

We are sure that if we mentioned Dire Straits, every body would recall its unique style, mainly driven by lead singer and composer, Mark Knopfler. Some people consider him the best guitar player ever, and his live performances all over the world are memorable. Sultans od Swing, Tunnel of Love, Telegraph Road, Gold…Many hits come to our minds, but from them all, it is the famous duet with Sting, Money for Nothing, what draws our attention more, together with Private Investigations.

Buzz around another Mark comes back. The Mark Hurd again has bounced up again in the press, as some additional documentation around the fishy Fisher has come to light. Beyond an inappropriate relationship between hard Hurd and fishy Fisher, it looks as if hard Hurd disclosed confidential information to the latter. So fishy Fisher seems to be getting a second 15 minutes of glory Andy Warhol said everybody deserved. However, being represented by the famous attorney Gloria Allred, it appears to us that fishy Fisher has had to devote many more than a mere 15 minutes to the “Gloria” to just get again 15 minutes of “glory”… Not sure this is a good ROI, frankly.

As it is already well known by those who have followed the case, hard Hurd settled private whatever issue fishy Fisher had with him. This happened before he was fired by the HP Board, and likely was one of the mean reasons precisely to lose trust in the guy, and ultimately show him the door. The private settlement included an undisclosed amount of dollars to be paid by hard Hurd to fishy Fisher, cost which simply adds up to all other costs hard Hurd has had (including the intangible impact on his family and reputation) for not having thought it twice before behaving like a hormonally unbalanced chimpanzee during mating seasons.

Although Big Mouth Larry quickly came to the rescue, and saved for him the match ball against hard Hurd, we would still question if all the cost he’s taken was really worth it. Is hard Hurd any better personally and professionally than he was at the time in which praise and success were a constant in his service record?

Again that “Money for Nothing” tune in our heads, as we recall part of its lyrics: “Money for nothing, and your chicks for free…” Indeed the private settlement was something hard Hurd was perfectly ready to afford, and certainly big money for fishy Fisher. Certainly “money for nothing” for hard Hurd, given the ROI he got, though this time the chick was not for free precisely, was she?

After all the “private investigations” after the affair, maybe Mark (Knopfler) could eventually consider legal action against Mark (hard Hurd) for copyright infringement by the latter. Private Investigations and Money for Nothing have been in billboards and hitlists for years already. Just to keep lawyers busy, you know, as suing is starting to become a tradition for hard Hurd, we’d say.

By the way, if Knopfler really gets to legal matter, he could as well include copyright infringement about Sultans of Swing. At the end of the day, hard Hurd is really becoming one of the Sultans of “Suing” lately. True or not?

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Caesar’s wife

 

Before becoming Consul of Rome, Julius Caesar was appointed Pontifex Maximus. He was appointed head of state religion. At that time, he was married to Pompeia, granddaughter of former dictator Cornelius Sulla. Thus, Pompeia was the head of state religion too, at least in matters related to women, in those years. Pompeia was Caesar’s second wife.

Some time after Caesar’s appointment to the job, Pompeia, as his wife, hosted the Festival of the “Bona Dea” (“the Good Goddess""), only for women attendance, to which men were forbidden to participate.

One of the start up politicians of the time, Publius Clodius Pulcher, disguised himself as a woman and entered the venue, apparently with the intention of seducing Mrs Caesar.

Not really producing any evidence of any wrongdoing, the episode was seized by Julius to demand divorce from Pompeia under the argumentation that “my wife ought not even to be under suspicion”. The real reason behind this break up and divorce were much more political, as politics of the time was mainly driven by family relationships worked out by marriages. Caesar was already deep into politics by that time. Historians strongly suggest he already had his next marriage (ie political alliance) in mind in his quest for power.

We have read the recent article in Fortune which analyses more in depth the story behind Mark Hurd ’s departure from HP a few months ago. Quite detailed and thorough.

Detailed enough to imagine a nice story.

In a given point in time, after having divorced its previous companion, the HP Board married Mark Hurd as the new CEO. In a certain point in time, Mark decided to have Festivals with other top executives from potential customers. Of course, those festivals were very exclusive, discreet, and reserved for the attendance of VIPs only.

A relatively unknown would-be starlet, Jodie Fisher, was hired by HP so as to greet guests to those festivals, and eventually supervise Mark’s agenda, ensuring he spent enough quality time with each person in the festival. Necessarily she herself spent a lot of time with Mark, with or without witnesses.

Not really producing any evidence of any violation of HP’s harassment policy, the episode was seized by the board to demand divorce from Mark… pity the HP PR spokespeople failed to make the historical parallelism. It would have been fun.

Still, though HP was not totally clear about the story, probably in the hope of letting it pass as fast as possible, smart journalists like those at Fortune open the door to details. A mere matter of trust, we may conclude after reading his article. The HP Board lost trust in Mark, even beofre anybody else did, even with no proof nor evidence at that time.

We agree that for any company, its CEO “ought not even to be under suspicion”. They in fact are an asset of the company they work for, aren’t they?

There is still, however, an interesting open question after the story. As the Festival’s episode was an excuse for Caesar to divorce Pompeia, a necessary step in his political career and quest for power, were there any quests for power behind the ousting of Hurd? We have no idea, but it would be interesting, in our opinion, to investigate a bit the likely candidates to marry the HP Boards at the time, and like enchanted frogs or toads, transform themselves into princesses or princes.

Technorati Tags: Mark Hurd,Carly Fiorina,HP,HP Way,Ray Lane,HP CEO,Management

 

A question of honor

 

Despite the sound title for this post, unfortunately we are not talking here about the known song by Sarah Brightman, are we? Wonderful performance in Las Vegas a few years ago, highly recommended to those who might appreciate good music.

No show in Las Vegas, but a bit further westward, we are afraid… up to Oakland, as readers do probably expect.

Despite SAP accepting to pay for the attorney’s fees nothing less that $120 million, jurors still have to determine the cost of damages to be paid to the oracle. At the moment, the oracle is claiming about $2.3 billion.

Today we got former Oracle’s President Charles Phillips testifying. Two highlights from his words today.

First, we has declared that the oracle’s software licensing would have been charged to SAP for a fee ranging from $3 to $4 billion. Other sources up that figure to $5 billion, but we will stick to Reuters. Well, we are certainly no experts in software fees, but even in the case that TomorrowNow’s full plan to take customers from the oracle’s had completely succeeded, it seems quite an unreasonable figure. We are not sure at all that the oracle would have had equivalent revenue for all those customers. Still, Mr. Phillips played the role he was expected to as a former top executive at the oracle, and the figure was thrown in to justify the $2.3 billion claim, and even make it look reasonable in front of jurors.

Second, and most important in our opinion, we would like to highlight the actual words by our Testosterone Champion: "There's sort of an honor among warriors here that we can compete fiercely, but we don't take each other's software," Phillips said.

Oh, puh-leeeze...!!!!!!!

In a gentlemen’s atmosphere, Testosterone Champion’s (TC for short) words would have been very welcome, would not have drawn any attention, and would have been understood as utterly polite. But since the beginning of the friction between the two software titans, back in 2007, we would not precisely compare it to a gentlemen’s duel in the times of Louis XIV, would we? Big Mouth

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Larry’s corroding and aggressive words, to begin with, followed by all the documents and evidence that has been published so far.

If we review TC’s  relatively recent past, it does not really look that the word “honor” is something he has not had to look up carefully before declaring anything today. More than 8 years in an extra-marital affair, and his move to IBM ally Infor (while all the buzz around Mark Hurd to the oracle’s and so forth) do not precisely prove he’s ever known what “honor” really means.

We do not take each other’s software, but we may take ourselves to hang around for years with women other than our own wife, or we eventually take Oracle’s confidential info and use it at Infor?

We do not really believe people are made of two personalities, one of which develops at work the other one at home. When we talk about individuals, we are basically talking of single entities that will basically behave the same way in either scenario. So if you betray your family, which should be sacred for you, are you telling me you will be able to keep loyal to a company that just pays you a salary, no matter how big, should the occasion arise? We are afraid we will not swallow that one, TC…

Maybe Apotheker was not the best choice for HP, and maybe Apotheker is not really the right witness to call, but TC is surely not the best example to preach “honor”, as Mark Hurd was not either a paradigm of the Standards of Business Conduct he preached for years at HP.

 

Questions? Ask Mark

 

The Chosen One has apparently declined to attend the oracle’s party… Too bad, we think.

People have a remarkable tendency to talk about famous individuals and celebrities, particularly if the gossip around is not related to an immaculate reputation. Mass media are made by people, and addressing people. They are not an exception. And if someone with the fame and reputation of Big Mouth Larry finger points someone in particular, that person is ultimately screwed.

HP is claiming that the Chosen One would be getting distracted from his new duties as CEO. Well, a guy born in Germany, educated in Israel, living in France, now moving to California, having been able to reach the CEO job at SAP, enjoying a team of executive assistants and backed by smart people leading the different businesses HP is made of, speaking five languages (one of them German, another one Hebrew, which is written “backwards”) can live with that for a few weeks, we think.

HP’s argument sounds weak. And a poor defense is sometimes equivalent to a strong offensive from the enemy. A weak defense is just providing ammunition to the Pontifex Maximus. Not showing up defaults to the Pontifex being right, and unwillingness to assume responsibilities after having left his former employer. We agree the Pontifex is not really proving elegant at all, and his style matches, in our opinion, much more the one you see in Gangs of New York than an educated discussion. But precisely for that, we would not advise to give a poor excuse to stay off.

If the Chosen One is innocent, he should actually leverage the opportunity to demonstrate his innocence, particularly in a case like this one, where Big Mouth Larry is providing a hell lot of free publicity.

Standing up as well can have the total opposite effect than the one insistently sought by the Pontifex Maximus: Strong leadership and principles. Something that, by the way, HP badly needs. If the Chosen One wants to show he cares for his new company, he should think of his reputation as an asset he is not the sole and single owner of. His reputation and his style is as well an asset of whatever company he works for in a given point in time.

Keeping the cleanest possible reputation is, therefore, something he accepted owing to his employer and his fellow employees since the moment he signed his contract and assumed responsibility. Step up, Léo. You are obliged to do so to yourself, your family, your business partners, your customers and, of course, the employees you lead. In case you had questions, Léo, you can always give Mark Hurd a call about the topic.

  

 

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Appeasement does not win wars

 

In 1938, Sir Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister, together with Edouard Daladier, French Premier, met with Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini in Munich, to discuss upon German demands prior to what later would become World War II. The agreement they came up with after a few days was reported by the British politician as “The Peace of Our Time”.

Basically, what the two Western representatives had done was giving in to every demand from the Germans. The main issue at the stake was the partition of Czechoslovakia, and, shamefully enough, the Czech representatives were not even allowed to participate in the meetings.

Sir Neville came back with a feeling of triumph that was as well backed by the majority of Great Britain. He was in fact welcome as almost a hero. The savior of peace.

you can read appeasement in his face…

Chamberlain’s future successor, Sir Winston Churchill, knew better. In a speech in the House of Commons, he regarded the agreement as a total defeat: “We have suffered a total and unmitigated defeat”, said he. He foresaw the consequences of the agreement. Most Historians actually cite the Munich Pact as the peak in the disastrous Appeasement Policy led by British and French governments. About one year after it had been signed, the world was at war.

Today it has been announced that SAP has agreed to pay for legal costs after the TomorrowNow trial. We talk of $120 million, which is not a small quantity just for legal expenses and fees. Consistent with SAP’s non-contest position, it could be imagined that SAP attorneys are trying to show goodwill after they admitted formally long ago they played inappropriate practices. As a side effect, they may be seeking to placate the beast they have in front of them, Big Mouth Larry, Pontifex Maximus from the oracle, and eventually get a better conclusion at the end of the trial.

Because it has to be well understood that these $120 million are just that: Legal costs. Nothing to do with the $2 billion the Pontifex demands upon business damages. That is precisely what the trial is about. And, at the moment, the Pontifex has not given in an inch in that demand, despite taking the $120 million, of course, like Germany did not change its plans after having got the Western approval for annexing the Sudetenland in 1938.

We will see on Friday, when the Pontifex is supposed to step in full majesty and glory into Court. Incidentally we should mention that he will as well have the advantage of having known about a theoretical deposition by Apotheker on previous Thursday. We are not sure about the benefits of not appearing personally.

We are not sure that SAP and Apotheker are 100% aware of what is going on. Appeasement might work when the ultimate objective of both parties is to prevent war, when war is more a threat than a really likely possibility. And as far as we know, we truly believe the oracle has set for aggressive war. Consciously giving in, as the Russians did in 1812 against Napoleon and 200 years later against the Germans, does only make sense if you simultaneously devastate the territory you give up. Certainly appeasement won’t help at all if your way of appeasement includes a $120 million cheque.

Appeasers do not win wars.

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The Chosen One is coming…

 

Well, well, well… The Chosen One will come, stand up and eventually fight.

Oh, yes… The One chosen by the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, Big Mouth Larry, will finally step in and face the challenge from the Oracle.

Now, it is not yet known if The guy will appear personally, honoring the well known advertising campaign by HP, “Personal Again”, or if he will leverage new technologies and appear through video playback.

Accepting the challenge from the Pontifex Maximus is already a good step forward, and we sincerely hope he will appear personally. This would add to his credibility, and certainly impress jurors positively. As well, he would have the chance to answer any evidence against him the Pontifex has announced everywhere he has.

He has been personally attacked, and his appearance would give him an opportunity to turn the trial on his benefit.

Coming up in video screen, on the contrary, would give a poor impression, and would eventually look as if he just wanted to prove he is not a crook (with the permission of Richard Nixon) but ultimately refuses further defense. He would not be able to stand to any questioning, and the oracle’s lawyers would be in a strong position to eventually use the tape against him. They will, should they be given the slightest chance. Video would weaken his position, and strengthen the oracle’s claim for his cowardice. All the benefit of stepping up would be offset by the video.

We will see.

Still, Apotheker, the Pharmacist, the Potion-Maker, the Sorcerer whose reputation and credibility are at the stake, should have additional interest in going to Court. So far, it appears the SAP lawyers have not really made a good start, and like the other Sorcerer we all have seen in Fantasia (Disney), will have to clean up all the mess his theoretical defendants have made. These guys, full of good intentions like Apprentice Mickey Mouse, may have really lost control of the situation from the beginning, we are afraid.

 

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The Good Thief at Judgment Day

 

For those readers who have had traditional Christian education the character of Saint Dismas should not be unfamiliar. This Saint is as well known as The Good Thief. He was a thief who was crucified beside Christ, and before both of them died, he repented (last minute call indeed!) from his sins and previous life, and Jesus granted him a place in Heaven.

Despite having in front of them nothing less than Pontifex Maximus at the Oracle, playing the Good Thief does not seem the wisest strategy for the lawyers at SAP. At the moment, they have played quite a smart strategy, tying with the Oracle before the trial started, in our opinion, which could be considered a major achievement given they have admitted guilt about “inappropriate behavior” against the oracle.

As the trial is set to determine how much SAP should pay to Pontifex Maximus Big Mouth Larry, the fact that SAP started admitting $40 million in damages “because of their subsidiary’s ultimate failure to lure many customers from Oracle” is a piece of cake to the lethal lawyers that work for the oracle.

For God’s sake! Attempting to minimize damages by saying that as a thief you were doing a bad job does not minimize guilt at all. It basically means admitting that not only you have been a thief, but a stupid one. The potential damages, the intention after the theft, the plans remain the same. Only for this jurors should grant the oracle anything they ask for!. No wonder that in parallel as well SAP has offered another $120 million in concept of attorneys fees and costs. By the way, SAP is reported as having already accrued for as much as precisely $160 million for this trial. (Running out of batteries, SAP?)

Judgment Day has started… but let’s understand clearly that Judge Phyllis Hamilton is not God, and definitely it is not the moment to play the Good Thief role. (We may leave the Pontifex Maximus playing the role of Caiaphas, though, well escorted by Annas Hurd…)

Footnote: Hermione, this one’s for you too… you know why, don’t you?

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Running on quicksand

 

Probably not used to getting a “no” as an answer, The Pontifex Maximus as the oracle must be feeling a little frustrated this weekend. No delay in the trial, as much as no gag order.

Symbolic victory, this denial of silence requested by SAP lawyers indeed, as the Pontifex has already circulated all the baffling he has been able to devise. Still a victory, however, and it’s likely he will try to maximize this. We think we will still hear from him.

Phyllis Hamilton, the judge in charge of this affair, has been very clear. Denying both requests, gag order from SAP and trial delay from the oracle, is just stating that in the courtroom, she is the boss, and she will not tolerate any interference with procedures and formalities. Despite the way any of the parties want to see the case, facts just show that this case is several years old, and all the buzz around Mark Hurd being dismissed by HP and afterwards being hired by the oracle, and the noise about Léo Apotheker being appointed new CEO at HP has nothing to do with the real dispute between the Oracle and the German SAP AG. And this is particularly true given the latter already admitted guilt about improper behavior, and accepted paying compensation to the former.

As a matter of fact, the trial is not about guilt or innocence, but more on determining the real reach of the damage made to the oracle, despite the efforts of the Pontifex Maximus to tweak the case and turn it into a personal evaluation of Léo Apotheker.

SAP has nothing to lose, but a one timer hit in their financials that they probably have already accrued for. And the oracle’s frustration comes mainly from not having the opportunity to get side-benefit from discrediting people at management positions in their business rivals. which is not the best way to reinforce the so much leading position the oracle is looking for in the enterprise business world.

So still tied they are we believe. Oracle 2 – SAP 2 as of now, in our opinion.

Good start for Justice.

And while Justice determines the outcome of this trial, still there could be a winner out of this tie. No Oracle, no SAP, but HP, who will manage to remain out of this story, and eventually might get some reinforcement in what could be a somewhat natural alliance with SAP. Ironically, this could ultimately depend on the oracle, as the reinforcement would be directly proportional to the level of aggressiveness and hostility in the oracle’s approach to the case.

Get the money and silently run, Pontifex. Every time you open that big mouth of yours you put the dollars at risk, and you push one more inch closer SAP and HP. Beating SAP is more about customers, revenue, added value and superior products. Your mouth delivers words, not dollars. Winning the America’s Cup with the fastest boat does not mean you can win a race on quicksand.

Technorati Tags: sap,oracle,management,sap trial,phyllis hamilton,hp,leo apotheker,mark hurd,larry ellison

Play wise, play fast

Some time ago we suggested Léo to speed up in one of his most powerful, though still would-be, weapons.

Every day counts. The barrier the oracle was planning to put in front of Herr Apotheker with the upcoming trial on the TomorrowNow affair has been smartly, elegantly and swiftly overcome by SAP’s lawyers.

It looks that Léo left good friends at SAP… what, indirectly, can have a hidden meaning: Nothing less that a tighter liaison in the coming future between HP and SAP.

The Acid Edge already anticipated this possible move, when talking about “Stepping Ahead, Please” (did you notice the initials S-A-P at that time?).

We still think both actions should develop fast and sound: Hurrying with WebOS in one front, and engaging closer to SAP to counter the Oracle’s hostility. And we start to find some similar views around.

Math and numbers, however, set the odds against HP, at least in what relates to storage, which could be the third move. 3Par and Palm acquisitions do not seem to be profitable in any near future.

But more than the mere cold numbers, it is more about confidence what HP should deal with. The ultimate value of the company will rely more on the confidence and expectations it creates than the actual math in a given point in time.

If HP demonstrates strength quickly enough, shares will come up sooner than later:

First: By speeding up smartphones and tablets. That’s a matter of WebOS. The company is showing boldness there by hiring external proven expertise and reorganizing its Palm Division.

Second: By speeding up integration of 3Par and quickly delivering results. More than actual profitability, it needs to show solid trends.

Third: By closing ranks with SAP. A solid covenant to stand against the oracle. Depends much on SAP, but the two could make a formidable rival to the oracle, despite not having nice Armani suits nor having won America Cup.

Fourth: Playing the Russian military tactics…

You could have some aces in your sleeve, HP. Play wise, but play fast.

 

Oracle 1 – SAP 1

 

About 200 years ago, Napoleon Bonaparte invaded Russia in his attempt of world domination. A mighty army, La Grande Armée, the flagship of the French Grandeur, marched in.

Russians soldiers were no match. Should they have stood to the French, they would have been severely defeated, and Napoleon would have returned victoriously.

So the Russian commanders, in a brilliant move, applied the best strategy they could think of. Taking advantage of the huge and vast territory behind them, they retreated systematically, leaving unopposed fields and land to the French, but making sure first their foe would not find anything (supplies, food, shelter…) that could be of any use.

All the way to Moscow, Russia was devastated before the French advances. Even Moscow itself was set on fire.

Winter arrived, and the comfortable time they planned to spend in Moscow turned into the coldest and hardest winter ever.

Out of supplies that should have been obtained on their victorious march to the capital city, weather conditions and unpreparedness of the Grande Armée made the rest. Very few of those invincible soldiers made it back to France. Very, very few. Hardly 58,000 men out of 700,000.

Germany made a similar mistake in 1941.

The oracle’s well known for his admiration of Sun Tzu’s (The Art of War). But he might want to add some History to his strategy masterbook, and instead of going 3,000 years back in time, read something about Russian History in the last 200 years.

Like Napoleon in 1812, he is preparing himself to attack the Russian SAP, and while making the most of that (up to $2 bn, nothing less), collaterally damage other enemies, namely HP. And, like Napoleon, he’s being caught in the same no-show reply from his enemy.

SAP seems to have sized up the situation, and given they already admitted guilt in the TomorrowNow affair, they are not willing to be plundered and participate in the party that the oracle is trying to set up: “No, thank you!”, they have replied. And they (SAP) plan to shorten the trial as much as they can’t, by arguing there is no point beyond sizing up the amount they might have to pay the oracle.

The oracle has erupted in rage: As important for them as the money SAP would have to pay the oracle, the actual harassment to Léo Apotheker as former SAP CEO as much as incoming HP CEO was important to Big Mouth Larry. Big Mouth’s reaction proves it.

Sorry, kid. Despite historical examples that could not possibly appear in Sun Tzu’s, at the moment SAP’s given you the finger. No party, no fun. You are just going to get dollars, an nothing else. No party, no fun, no sacrificial victim to offer to your hordes of admirers.

The Oracle: 1 – SAP: 1

A tribute to the oracle (II)

 

Well, a reader/friend suggested additional music to add to the oracle’s playlist...

Yachts, fancy parties, illegal liaisons, private jets… and underworld spies. About perfect!

not that Carly either, kid…

just in case, here you got the lyrics…

You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht
Your hat strategically dipped below one eye
Your scarf it was apricot
You had one eye in the mirror as you watched yourself gavotte
And all the girls dreamed that they'd be your partner
They'd be your partner, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you?
You had me several years ago when I was still quite naive
Well you said that we made such a pretty pair
And that you would never leave
But you gave away the things you loved and one of them was me
I had some dreams, they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you? don't you?
I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you?
Well I hear you went up to Saratoga and your horse naturally won
Then you flew your Lear Jet up to Nova Scotia
To see the total eclipse of the sun
Well you're where you should be all the time
And when you're not you're with
Some underworld spy or the wife of a close friend
Wife of a close friend, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you? don't you?

A tribute to the oracle

 

Well, yesterday we recommended a little relax to the oracle. Though he is known for being a serious fan of Sun Tzu’s, maybe he is precisely falling into one of his traps. The Chinese philosopher advises to make you enemy more choleric if he is choleric in a given point in time, as this will lead him to irrational behavior, and will drive him to more mistakes. So, Big Mouth Larry, cool off a bit, won’t you?

All this story about theft and espionage, however, reminds us of the classic James Bond movies, doesn’t it? Super-villains to hate, super-heroes to love… Music sometimes helps relaxation.

So here we offer you, Big Mouth, a little musical suggestion that might suit you (sorry for the word, but with all these suing around, we couldn’t help it).

Not the same Carly you’d hate, is she? And tell your tennis colleague she’s not fishy, would you?

 

For those who want a transcript of the lyrics, there you go…

Nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby you're the best.
I wasn't lookin'
But somehow you found me
I tried to hide from your love light
But like heaven above me
The spy who loved me
Is keepin' all me secrets safe to night
And nobody does it better
Though sometimes I wish someone could
Nobody does it quite the way you do
Why'd you have to be so good.
The way that you hold me
Whenever you hold me
There's some kind of magic inside you
That keeps me from runnin'
But just keep it comin'
How'd you learn to do the things you do
And nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby
baby
darlin' you're the best
Baby you're the best
baby you're the best

Reading or playing at the oracle

 

Quick appendix to our previous post…

Apparently Léo Apotheker, by the way, is going to be traveling around the world meeting customers and HP teams as a good start for his new position at HP.

A secondary objective might probably be irritating the oracle (yukyuk).

So here is our little contribution to cool the oracle down a bit. Maybe he should relax a bit reading, playing games other than tennis, or both things!

Soooo obvious, that we’d better apologize in advance.

Note: Sorry kid, but this one’s Nintendo… no oracle software there… (hihihihihihihihihi)

Armani-labeled suits…

 

So here we go…Today the news is reproducing almost everywhere an email submitted by the oracle regarding the case of TomorrowNow’s, scheduled for the first day in November. There are even quite funny references to that (not saying the content is not serious).

But as we go through these references, we miss a certain link that explains why the outbursts from the oracle are coming these days, before the trial actually starts.

After all the mess about certain article published in NYT, a few days ago SAP formally asked for a gag order against the oracle.

And we think that this is probably one of the reasons why the oracle has actually exploded and certainly has done it before the trial started.

Should the gag order come effective, all the information and media influence about it would remain within the courtroom. So in certain way, this email from Big Mouth Larry is one more attempt to influence jurors before he must shut up publicly. it would be consistent with his style, as we recall his declarations about Mark Hurd’s ousting, and many other examples of his particular verbosity.

And trying to understand what he means in this email, we wonder what the need or purpose of sending it is .

First: He is not addressing that much the case itself, but more the fact of Léo Apotheker, former SAP CEO and currently HP CEO, attending the trial should he be called or not. His main point is this one. It is Léo Apotheker’s presence. The German exec is just one more witness in a longer list. SAP, the offender company, is hardly mentioned but incidentally, as the previous employer of Léo Apotheker.

Second: If he does have evidence about any wrongdoing by Léo Apotheker, then he indeed has a won case, and naturally Justice will grant him his demands. But it is up to the jurors to decide the verdict, not general public, and certainly not journalists. The case will be settled in a courtroom, not in parallel trials online.

Third: He boldly dares to guess HP’s plans of keeping Léo Apotheker away from the US in order to avoid having to attend the trial. Who is Big Mouth Larry to suggest cowardice of others?

We think that some explanation to the previous items lies in the hypothetical rationale in Big Mouth Larry’s feverish mind. If you want, the situation looks very much like crime investigation: The first suspects are usually those thought by investigators to get some kind of benefit from the crime.

One: By distracting its CEO, the oracle hits directly HP top managers. He would delay the effective start date at HP of Apotheker, and would have as well HP’s top managers sort of “distracted” too.

Two: All the energy and resources that Léo has and will have to dedicate to this issue won’t be therefore devoted to HP.

Three: HP’s reputation will be damaged. HP has already been too much in the news in the news because of legal matters: HP Board being sued by shareholder groups, HP suing Mark Hurd for lack of ethics, more shareholders suing HP for how the Hurd ouster was managed… not to mention earlier (and not so old) suit that cost the job to former chairwoman Patricia Dunn and so forth.

Four: Driving attention to Léo Apotheker in particular, and to HP and SAP at a broader level, effectively removes it from Mark Hurd primarily and Charles Phillips secondarily, much more tied to the oracle than to HP or SAP. This guys badly need it.

Five: Particularly related to Mark Hurd, this is a big favor from big-brother Larry… We could imagine, right after his ouster, Mark Hurd running out of tears to his tennis dear friend: “Larry, Larry, look at what they did to me; Larry, would you please stand for me?…”

Six: The self-assigned myth of invincibility and being above Good and Evil for Larry himself. Blinded by self-pride, the guy probably feels the need to prove himself and incidentally the rest of the world that his word is law… And a particularly sensitive community within the “rest of the world” is made up from the ranks at the oracle precisely. We would not be surprised if Big Mouth Larry expects his employees to fall down to their knees and surrender to the power of their Leader, like all those Ford-worshippers in George Orwell’s 1984.

It is said that Larry Ellison dresses in Armani suits. Being as rich as him, it is something that we could expect…Probably there are many Armani suits in the meetings and forums Larry attends.

   

Now, what we should not expect is to see are Armani suits in slum bullies brawling.

Elegance is more than just paying thousands of dollars for perfectly tailored suits, and ranking 6th in the list of wealthiest people in the globe…

If you’d follow me, it is not the suit: It is more the way you use and wear the suit. Armani, by the way, is just a label.

 

Dangerous artillery

 

In modern warfare, heavy artillery can be necessary. It can be fundamental to determine who wins a battle. It can contribute as much as you like to winning.

But heavy artillery will not be the actual means to achieve a decisive victory. Actual victory is achieved when the ground troops (infantry, cavalry, tanks or scouts) do actually keep the battlefield and the enemy is either gone, captured or dead.

The problem with heavy artillery is more in the when and the how to use it.

If you strike too early, its effects on the enemy will probably be quickly fixed and mended before your ground troops can take any advantage of it. If you launch it too late, you may probably not even have the time to do it, as the enemy will have taken your position before you strike.

If you use it without having considered all the effects of it, without the proper intelligence backing your plan, well, you may not hit the necessary targets to wreck the enemy as you should. If you shoot before coordinating appropriately with your ground forces, you may even hit them by the so-called friendly-fire. In this case, you couldn’t do your enemy a bigger favor.

We have recently seen the first serious move from the HP Headquarters after the appointment of the new top executives, Ray Lane and Léo Apotheker. Ray Lane himself sent an open letter to The New York Times in reply to a long range torpedo launched by the latter.

The first heavy artillery blow in the Oracle Wars show.

Well-intentioned backing from the incoming Chairman to his CEO… but was it the right shoot?

We think it might have been launched too quickly. Though it might have given the market a positive sign about “hey guys, despite whatever Larry Ellison might have said or might say in the coming future, we are not dead yet”, the main message was not strong enough (they pleaded “non guilty” more than “innocent” in the TomorrowNow affair) and the speed of it looked to us more like an attempt to cut short the thesis from NYT than a real solid argumentation.

Not only was it sent too fast. It was aimed to the wrong target. If the main blow from NYT (which could be read as Oracle, after the conflict of interest held by the author, as you can see in the previous links above) was targeting Léo Apotheker and the HP Board, we believe that attacking Hurd again was a very poor defense of HP’s new CEO and those who picked him.

As well, the heavy artillery blow was self-weakened from the beginning. From Ray Lane’s letter to NYT, the reader gets the impression that Léo Apotheker will be called as a key witness only after having been appointed CEO at HP. This is not actually true. Léo’s name appears in the list of Oracle’s witnesses dated August 5th, even before Mark Hurd’s scandal exploded.

If Ray Lane is capable of managing well the artillery he’s got as Chairman of the Board, he won’t make the best use of it aiming to past issues (and Mark Hurd is definitely something past for HP) as this won’t restore the confidence from the market peers that HP badly needs to wage its war. If selecting Léo Apotheker was the best option for the HP Board, let Léo prove it. Support him forward, and in the event of failure, remove him. But Mark Hurd has nothing to do with that.

One collateral effect as well from this unfortunate artillery firing could be as well weakening Léo Apotheker, as it probably limits his natural space of maneuver. It’s adding pressure on him, unnecessarily, as he already got all the IT industries eyes on him.

It is a matter of opinion, however, whether Oracle’s lawyers intended or not to actually call Apotheker. It belongs to the sphere of hypothesis that after Ray Lane’s letter to NYT, Oracle’s lawyers will eventually call Apotheker or not. But it is certainly true that Léo Apotheker’s presence at court was a possibility before anybody in the world could have even imagined that Mark Hurd was to leave the HP CEO job.

The shadow of doubt

 

It seems that a columnist from NYT has added some fuel to the war between the titans…

And though it is not the first one the same journalist writes after more or less similar thesis, this time he has provoked some reaction from the HP biggies.

None less than the incoming non executive Chairman of the Board himself.

In a polite and educated letter to NYT, Ray Lane replies back to the author in a double-pronged manner:

In one hand, he pleads “not-guilty” for his CEO.

On the other, he drives attention to the sacking of HP’s former CEO, in an attempt to settle for once and for ever the reasons for that. He actually sides with his new board colleagues and endorses the ousting.

It could be somehow imaginable that sooner or later there could be articles in the press like this one. As a matter of fact, this is not the first one, and probably won’t be the latest…. but this one has provoked a formal reply from the highest HP figure so far. Personally.

What makes us think that the author of the NYT column has touched HP in an extremely sensitive aspect, in an extremely sensitive way, and in an extremely sensitive moment.

Assuming that a Chairman of the Board of a company such as HP does not have the time to answer like he’s done all the opinions which are spreading so rapidly throughout the internet, why has he backfired so quickly?

The shadow of doubt will surely float around, we suppose.

One thing under any reasonable doubt is certain though: There is a trial going on, and Léo Apotheker is going to be called as a witness, according to WSJ.

We will see in a few weeks how this story keeps going, but we could expect Big-Mouth Larry becoming growingly excited about the prospects of embarrassing HP…

Coherence for trust

 

We believe one of the biggest needs a company like HP does need these days is trust.

Trust from customers, trust from partners, trust from shareholders, trust from vendors, trust from employees too. Trust from the market, in short.

If it only were for the fact that trust is the base of the share value that ultimately will hold, support and sustain the company career in the market.

Trust in its values, its leadership, its ways and procedures, its fair play.

Though History has plenty of examples of leaders that have succeeded based on the general trust they have inspired, the recent episodes starred by HP generate some doubts in our minds.

In early August CEO Mark Hurd is ousted after some ethics and confidence principles.

HP takes its time to name a successor, while zillions of rumours of all imaginable flavors, like Bertie Bott’s beans, spread all over the media.

In a context background were relatively recently Oracle was swiftly but openly sliding to war against the rest of the Universe, including HP in particular, the latter needed a bold and clear move that as well went as fast as reasonably possible.

A probably not irrelevant coup about one month after Hurd packed his stuff from Palo Alto, drove him into the arms of Big-Mouth-Larry at Oracle. This could be seen today as the natural aftermath of a series of unfortunate declarations from the Oracle’s Pontifex Maximus where words like idiots, resignation en masse and other delicatessen were not infrequent.

We think it is not unlikely that HP’s Board took this last bravado from Big-Mouth as a somewhat personal insult to HP and its board… and even eventually determined them to twist the path they could very well have followed up to that point by naming CEO a more expected or natural candidate. At the end of the day, all the media have been filled up regularly with the names of Bradley, Livermore, Joshi, Tim Cook and quite a number of others…The usual suspects. HP even tried to prevent Hurd from teaming with Big-Mouth by filing suit against the move… a minor clash that ended up quickly with no further consequences than making more obvious who was on which side. The war theatre even afforded getting special guest stars as Jack Welch who starred an unforgettable panegyric for some in pectore candidate…

So 55 days after Cathie Lesjak stepped up temporarily as interim CEO, enter the unexpected Léo Apotheker… followed by Ray Lane as the new non-exec Chairman of the Board. Rescued from unemployment, and with a background at SAP that won’t lead him to succeeding Jack Welch as Manager of the Century precisely, he still might deserve a pass.

Apparently, the stage was set for just a “wait and see” status quo, the market anxiously awaiting the next move. But not all the elements had been considered so far.

Next November the show will go on in a different scenario, a trial about inappropriate procedures by SAP against Oracle. The hot topic won’t be about guilt versus innocence, but more about how much. As a matter of fact, SAP has admitted responsibility, and though being tens of millions a reasonable fine for them, Big-Mouth talks of billions.

We do not know the level of engagement and involvement of the apparently calm Léo… but the matter sounds fishy enough to consider whether he was appropriate or not for HP, given the situation HP’s in, and the reputation it is rapidly earning.

If Hurd was ousted based on ethics… why the very same judges forget so easily about ethics now? Was that important to slap Big-Mouth in his face? Is the slapping worth a reputation?

If you are interested in details, yo may want to read The New York Times.

 

Léo Apotheker, new HP CEO

Ray Lane, new Chairman of the Board at HP’s.

Heroes and sidekicks

 

Who could recall Batman without Robin? How could Shrek have conquered half of the world's hearts with no Donkey? Even Mr Incredible would have failed without Frozone.

Out from Disney’s or Dreamwork’s worlds, real life, and eventually business world has no standalone heroes without sidekicks: Bonnie and Clyde, Robin Hood and Little John, King Arthur and Lancelot… No Hewlett, no Packard; no Gates, no Ballmer…

On the contrary, villains usually operate in a standalone mode… The Joker, Lord Farquaad, Syndrome, Michael Dell…

Quite doubtful, by the way, about the lonely Ellison… that could be the exception of the rule. Maybe age has softened him a bit (despite such a big mouth) and looks for his sidekick in his dear friend Mark. Still wondering though about who the latter is sidekick to; might make his mind up after a nice seafood dinner…

So… we got this nice couple stepping up: Léo and Ray…

Tough choice to make at this moment, who the hero is, and who the sidekick is. Theoretically, one would think that an exec would play the main role, and a non-exec would stay in the backstage providing sidekick support… but still, it could be the reverse, having Mr-Backstage-Nice-Guy behind the steering wheel, while the exec limits himself to the actual execution of Mr-Nice-Guy’s higher-level strategy.

Ambiguous enough, we have an Apotheker (that’s German for “pharmacist”) that might have the magic potion that his new company needs urgently… and we have what someone called the a Ray of sunshine to shed the light his new company urgently needs too.

Light or potion? Light to prepare the right potion, or the appropriate potion to enlighten around?

We think that after the recent experiences with CEOs that HP has had, this time they’d better try to position themselves in the right lane and race fast as light rays before the oracle’s rage strikes hurder.