Saturday, 30 October 2010

Running on quicksand

 

Probably not used to getting a “no” as an answer, The Pontifex Maximus as the oracle must be feeling a little frustrated this weekend. No delay in the trial, as much as no gag order.

Symbolic victory, this denial of silence requested by SAP lawyers indeed, as the Pontifex has already circulated all the baffling he has been able to devise. Still a victory, however, and it’s likely he will try to maximize this. We think we will still hear from him.

Phyllis Hamilton, the judge in charge of this affair, has been very clear. Denying both requests, gag order from SAP and trial delay from the oracle, is just stating that in the courtroom, she is the boss, and she will not tolerate any interference with procedures and formalities. Despite the way any of the parties want to see the case, facts just show that this case is several years old, and all the buzz around Mark Hurd being dismissed by HP and afterwards being hired by the oracle, and the noise about Léo Apotheker being appointed new CEO at HP has nothing to do with the real dispute between the Oracle and the German SAP AG. And this is particularly true given the latter already admitted guilt about improper behavior, and accepted paying compensation to the former.

As a matter of fact, the trial is not about guilt or innocence, but more on determining the real reach of the damage made to the oracle, despite the efforts of the Pontifex Maximus to tweak the case and turn it into a personal evaluation of Léo Apotheker.

SAP has nothing to lose, but a one timer hit in their financials that they probably have already accrued for. And the oracle’s frustration comes mainly from not having the opportunity to get side-benefit from discrediting people at management positions in their business rivals. which is not the best way to reinforce the so much leading position the oracle is looking for in the enterprise business world.

So still tied they are we believe. Oracle 2 – SAP 2 as of now, in our opinion.

Good start for Justice.

And while Justice determines the outcome of this trial, still there could be a winner out of this tie. No Oracle, no SAP, but HP, who will manage to remain out of this story, and eventually might get some reinforcement in what could be a somewhat natural alliance with SAP. Ironically, this could ultimately depend on the oracle, as the reinforcement would be directly proportional to the level of aggressiveness and hostility in the oracle’s approach to the case.

Get the money and silently run, Pontifex. Every time you open that big mouth of yours you put the dollars at risk, and you push one more inch closer SAP and HP. Beating SAP is more about customers, revenue, added value and superior products. Your mouth delivers words, not dollars. Winning the America’s Cup with the fastest boat does not mean you can win a race on quicksand.

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