Tuesday, 7 June 2011

Limbo Dance

 

Limbo dance is the art or ability of dancers to go below a bar that gets lower and lower without using hands or any other support than bare feet…

how low can you go?

It normally turns into a contest, and the winner, naturally, ends up being he or she who is able to go lowest without falling nor breaking his or her back.

We are starting to think that the guy with the “accent aigĂș” at HP has some fondness of limbo dancing, and is seriously willing to win sooner than later. So far, he has beaten his predecessor, Mark Hurd, and has gone beyond the lowest level (38) after the former fell in love with the Pontifex Maximus at the Oracle when Jodi said “no”.

At this moment common shares are traded below 36 and falling… in fact, there are trading at their loweest level in the last two years, at least.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HPQ+Interactive#chart8:symbol=hpq;range=2y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

How low can you go in this limbo contest, mein Herr?

 

Monday, 6 June 2011

Faust 2.1

 

Angels were created, according to Christian and Hebrew tradition, before men and women. Angels were far more perfect, and certainly less tied to human limitations.

However, in the beginning of times, one of them rose against his creator. Against God Himself.

He was the most beautiful of them all, and claiming his own merit based on that, he led nothing less than one third of the angels supporting his rebellion. He would not accept to bow down to mankind after having discovered God’s plan of salvation. He would not accept being second best to creatures not so perfect as him, to Sons and Daughters of God.

Men and women were not perfect, after all.

Now we have our own version of Faust dwelling into these troublesome and difficult waters… and moving one step ahead. After all, he is not unfamiliar to Hebrew traditions, we suppose.

He will not launch a product which is not perfect…

Leaving aside any definition of what perfect exactly means in his mind, should we understand that when WebOS is out there it will really be perfect? Will the tablets or smartphones that run there really achieve that?

Several million people all over the world may have something to say about that… and the same wrongly understood sense of pride which ultimately led Lucifer to rebellion floats in the atmosphere, as Satan’s shadow floated over Faust through Mephistopheles, according to the German legends that our dear 21st-Century Faust is probably not unaware of.

Lucifer is also know as The Fallen Angel… if he continues the trend of the stock value of the company he is leading, he will soon match the same “perfection” as the former.

 

Sunday, 5 June 2011

Selling bearskins

 

Years ago, when we started or professional career, a wise mentor of ours told us something which has been invariably true.

“The most difficult task in a company like this is selling”, said he, and added “but the second most difficult one is to get the invoices paid for. And you need both to succeed".

At that time we were not old enough to really understand the importance of this teaching, and we were happy juniors that took all that for granted, and presumed fair play end to end.

After so many years, it is still surprising to notice companies which seem not to have learnt from their elders… and even more surprising to note that one of these companies is based in a country whose traditions and culture specifically teach respect and appreciation to their elders, and to all the experience and knowledge they own.

Interesting to note that it has been in EMEA, in their overseas operation, that the issues have popped up precisely. What makes us think that Europe still has a lot to learn from the Far East, and eventually European culture still clashes with Asian.

Particularly shameful for Spaniards… who seem fond of selling bearskins far too easily.

 

Faust 2.0

 

German culture and traditions are an intrinsic part of Europe’s History. As Europe may not be understood without Shakespeare, Milton, Keats, Tolstoi, Dostoievsky, Balzac, Macchiavelli, Dumas, Locke… it could not either without Goethe, one of whose latest works was the story about Faust.

This is the story of a deal… an agreement, if you will… or in modern language, a Strategic Alliance. Faust was given 24 years of unlimited happiness by Mephistopheles in exchange of his immortal soul for eternity.

Immortal souls are often represented in art like auras or halos around their owners… Immortal souls which constitute the essence of their owners, like state-of-the-art products constitute the souls of leading technology companies.

Recently one German-led company has allowed its German head to sell off a significant portion of its immortal soul, or halo, in exchange of having its new partner serving as exclusive agent to HP for certain Universal Communications (UC) solutions. Probably the same way as Mephistopheles was the agent of Faust to grant the latter the appropriate deliverables for his ultimate happiness.

We do not really know what is included in the definition of happiness for our new version of Faust, but in fact it has not proven any kind of happiness to HP shareholders so far, as much as Faust’s original happiness did not really mean any happiness at all to poor Gretchen.

And we do not know either for how long this so-called happiness will last… Despite the original legends stipulated 24 years, our personal bet is that Faust 2.0 may enjoy 24 months, or eventually 24 weeks…

 

Saturday, 4 June 2011

Back

 

We have been busy for a while… different reasons have kept our attention to matters other than our blog.

We are back. And we hope we can catch up quickly.Which is more, by the way, than what Big Ape and the Potion-maker could say, we think…

Stay tuned if you’d like.

Sunday, 12 December 2010

The oracle at Compiegne

 

The even forces, at least on paper, that were standing in late 1939 at either sides of the Maginot Line, would not imagine that less than 6 months later, the initially outnumbered German army would inflict the French the worst defeat ever.

22 years earlier, Germany surrendered to the French. The French required the Germans to sign off the Armistice in a train wagon at Compiegne. The French kept the wagon as a monument to the French Victory and as well to the German Defeat. Fro the French, the German surrender of 1918 was a revenge to the German victories in the 1870s, and so it was carved on stone near the place where the train wagon was exhibited.

When in June 1940 the German flags were unfurled in Paris, the French High Command still had to formally sign its surrender, and they were called to do so at, precisely, Compiegne, and precisely in the same train wagon that the French had kept. Fro the German Leader, as important as the victory itself, the Germans were seeking revenge to the limit of humiliation. He instructed specifically his generals to set the ceremony that way. Anecdotally, the Germans made and intentional stop in front of the stone carving before the actual surrender signing.

We have witnessed recently the Oracle-SAP case verdict. It states that the latter has to pay the former the highest ever penalty in copyright infringement cases. Oracle’s victory sounds pretty much like the worst defeat ever inflicted to SAP.

It looks, however, like the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle is looking after his own Compiegne… Not really necessary, not fundamentally changing the lawsuit case, appearing more as a token gesture than a fundamental part of the trial, is this really something beyond a simple wish of humiliation?

Wednesday, 8 December 2010

Legacy’s cost

 

“Number 2 is just the first one of the losers”, says a very famous motorbike racer who has been World Champion many times (still not retired) who loves being the fastest one.

This would be too radical a view when we have a look to any market, where there is not just one winner. It would actually be impossible under antitrust regulations.

However, the quote from Valentino Rossi (which is the biker’s name, as many bike fan’s might have guessed) can be understood in the context of what is currently going on in the smartphone market (and eventually in the tablet’s too), where old kings are running the serious risk of being phased out from their former positions.

Of course there can be space for them, and we actually believe there will always be, in fact. But it is really hard to accept being below second rank after past history dominance.

RIMM, Nokia, though still hitting very important volumes, might well be in that situation. The issue is the trend, clearly decaying, and the chance that they still base their current results on legacy. .

Legacy of corporate business and systems that have an enormous cost of change. Legacy of users who are provided a phone by their companies that might be used for personal purpose. Legacy from past experiences and resistance to adapt to new phones from previous ones.

But legacy has a deadline and does not last forever. History proves legacy is not enough, and costs empires. Ask the British about India, ask the French about Indochina, ask the Dutch about their Indies, or ask the Russians for the “xxxstan” republics. there is still a Britain, a France, Netherlands and Russia… but where did their empires go?

The sound of silence

 

It is common to hear that no news equals good news… but it does not really seem the case for the guys at Microsoft regarding their mobile phone story.

Silence, as in that famous tune by Simon and Garfunkel, can be really loud, even more than the cheerful reporting when success is there, like it happened with Kinect.

Silence as well about the potential upgrades that are badly needed does not help either. When will the famous “cut & paste” basic feature show up?

The more they wait, the smaller chunk of the pie they’ll get, though they still have the potential benefit from the corporate and enterprise market, that to much extent has a Microsoft based IT. But even there, RIMM and Nokia can be too far it they keep on slowing down, or if they fail to move fast. Even the slowest of the slowest, that is, Palm, might move ahead of them if they ever start. Particularly if they deliver a confusing message to this segment.

The market does not wait for sound names and brands if they do not really deliver.

 

Sunday, 5 December 2010

Losers needed

 

Everybody likes a winner. In America, for example, “loser” is often used as an insult…

As well, and probably for the same reasons, everybody likes winning.

The problem with winners, however, is that to have a winner, you need losers. Winning is a relative situation. No losers mean no winners. When you win, you win against someone. Victory goes always at somebody else’s expense.

We have been wondering for a while about what is going between Oracle and HP. After the latest “victory” Oracle enjoyed, the well known trial against SAP for copyright infringement, which in fact involved indirectly HP through its current CEO LĂ©o Apotheker, we have read about new aggressive arguments from Oracle’s Big Mouth Larry, aka the Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, targeting HP.

These last comments from the Pontifex indeed sound to us like a formal war declaration that finally comes up, after the de-facto war status so far, at least from the oracle’s side. Since the acquisition of Sun Microsystems by the latter, the once good partnership between Oracle and HP has degraded into a bitter relationship between the two companies that could mean in a closer relationship between HP and SAP, for example. SAP might really be all for it. As a matter of fact, we do believe this would be a logic step to take, and would certainly put a strong opponent in front of the Pontifex.

The Pontifex Maximus at the oracle, however, has a strong reputation after his manners, boastings and eventual bluffing. Not precisely an example of a New England British-like traditional gentleman, though effective and results-oriented. In fact, he is the real foundation of his company’s success. Personally, as well, he has fared pretty well, being considered the sixth richest man on earth. And the question remains open: Why HP in particular? What has this Pontifex Maximus against HP?

We do not have the full record of Oracle’s history, nor any insider information source. We don’t from HP either. But still, from the public information we might have had access to, we think we have an idea of what might be the reason.

Big Mouth Larry is probably no exception from the opening statements in this post. He loves winners, and he loves winning. Therefore, he sees any activity he steps into, anything he does, as a competition, as a battle, as a contest… that he ultimately has to win. To prove himself and the rest of the world he is a winner, and the world should love and admire him the same way he adores and admires himself.

Running his company is for him nothing different from any other kind of competition, and he takes it as something where he must win. He would not stand himself if he wouldn’t. Recall the way his PR is managing the fact that a cluster made of Sun Micro servers is the fastest one managing databases: They talk about this the same way they talk of the Oracle boat winning the America’s Cup.

And there is where the matter lies. To become a winner requires him to find a loser, Otherwise, there is no winner. So considering his options, there seem to be three possible opponents: Cisco, IBM, and HP. Cisco being the weakest, in reality it’s already behind Oracle.

Both IBM and HP are phenomenal references. IBM being the master company in the IT industry, a reference for decades, and HP being the largest IT company by revenue. But from the two, HP is weaker, compared to IBM, and certainly within range for Oracle’s artillery.

In other words, HP is a “beatable” foe in the eyes of Oracle, weak enough in certain areas, like software, and big enough for any victory on them to be regarded as brilliant. Beating HP would be a triumph the industry would recognize.

IBM would still be out of reach for Oracle. At least, farther than HP. And despite the Pontifex’ ultimate wish to beat them too, the guy is probably still intelligent enough to declare he does not intend to “tease them too much”. We do not think Oracle is not going after IBM because Big Mouth Larry likes IBM; we think he realizes he would probably not succeed if he tried, and wants not to appear as a loser should anybody think he wanted to fight IBM.

So the Pontifex is looking for losers to beat so he can feel recognition for his victories, so he can feel a winner. And HP’s problem with that is just being in range. That is, in our opinion, the underlying cause in the Pontifex’ fixation with HP. The risk now for the Pontifex, however is not really being able to make it. Having the speed record of database processing does not necessarily mean winning anything.

Saturday, 4 December 2010

It goes without saying

 

Predicting the future has always been one of the strongest wishes man has had throughout times. Either to benefit from anticipated information, or to prevent eventual bad news, it’s sort of a constant throughout human history.

History is therefore full of examples about predictions, some of which became true (probably by chance), many more of which turned out completely wrong.

One of the most recognized visionaries in the IT world is, no doubt, Steve Jobs at Apple. In fact, his leadership within that company made it possible to actually contribute to define the future of that industry, for the good or for the bad. Apple’s influence is actually tangible in our opinion.

No matter how much this influence might have been (which could be subject to debate depending on personal opinions), it seems not all Jobs’ opinions are exactly right, however. Even successful visionaries might not be completely right.

His widespread comment about mid-sized android tablets being DOA is not exactly what is happening, according to Samsung’s Galaxy tablet performance so far.

Which is not necessarily bad for Apple anyway. Competition is healthy for an industry development, we’d all probably agree.

However, as important in our opinion as what was explicitly said, it is what was not explicitly quoted in Jobs comment. Certainly not usual for Steve Jobs to criticize competition openly or so directly, his strong attack to Android-based tablets indicated his concern about its potential success. In other words, he could have been seeing what Android could achieve…

If he foresaw the results Androids (through Samsung) are apparently achieving so far, then he was not that bad a visionary at the end of the day… and a master of propaganda, the way he presented his forecast.

Wednesday, 1 December 2010

Teenagers buy too

 

Political systems that determine what party holds government for a certain period of years are based on people’s votes. Every number of years, elections are set up, and the party that gets the higher number of votes holds government until next election.

If voting age starts at, say, 18, a significant portion of voters in elections happening in year 2020, for example, will include a lot of new voters who were under age in the previous polls. Let’s use the US as an example.

When presidential elections come up in 2012, all the people who are today from 16 to 19 will be able to vote for the first time in their lives. So Republicans or Democrats that prepare those elections should consider all these teenagers as prospect voters and make sure they buy in even before they become actual voters.

And here we got another smart move from Apple, according to the report here… If the information delivered in it is correct, it would be a fact that Apple is not only selling well to current customers, but as well paving the way for maintaining and/or increasing its share in the smartphone and tablet markets at least in the future. The tablet market, predicted to grow real fast, will be based on current customers, but new ones that today are just teenagers that will have resources to buy stuff in the coming years.

Maybe they have to wait long for 6-year-old kids to be real customers, but the same principle applies to teenagers that will have enough money, or that can convince mom and dad to get one iPad or iPhone for them next year, or in 2012.

It is not frequent, for example, to find teenagers longing for a regular mp3 player, a specific Android phone or even a Zune or a Windows Phone 7 phone. But they actually do for iPhones, iPods or iPads. Not necessarily because of games… but more because of all the rest of things you may do with it in a recognizably “cool” way.

Skating, for example, is not that much about moving a certain distance differently than just walking or running. Is about stepping on a fashionable board and doing weird movements on it and with it while managing to keep balance and not getting hurt. Same with tablets or smartphones. It is more about how you do things on them than the actual things you do, which could be performed in a standard laptop or netbook.

Tuesday, 30 November 2010

The wrong apple

 

According to Christian tradition, Eve and Adam bit the apple from the Tree of Life and were expelled from The Garden of Eden for doing that.

That was long ago, however.

Today they could manage their bits with different apples, and mankind might fare better than it actually does. At least, it would be a more reliable world, according to this report.

More seriously, traditional PC makers like HP and Dell are losing ground in an aspect of PC business that really depends only on each of them: Service and Support. Not good news at all for a business who is losing mindshare in the market, running real fast towards (more) commoditization, and getting farther from better times.

 

 

Wishing upon a star

 

Geppetto, the old toy maker from the Pinocchio tale, wished so much to have a son and has prayed so many times for it, that after having built his puppet, it was granted life. Lovely tale…

Lovely tale that came to our minds after learning that Microsoft might be seeing potential revenue in selling (licensing) their patents in smartphone technology.

It appears that the Big Ape has repeated so much his wish for “developers” that he finally has been turned into one of them. True that, after all, a software company is fundamentally a developer, but we are not that sure that the original idea was not to retain IP (Intellectual Property) for the core value of their software, and have other smaller companies developing stuff around that.

If one repeats something too many times, he might turn into that, it seems… | Nintendo Wii

Of course they can always keep on improving the patents… or making it for more patents… but others could too, and, isn’t this strategic shift revealing lack of confidence in their own product line?

Careful too about another aspect: Licensing IP via patents can be a big revenue stream, but it is too much of a one-shot business that would dry up relatively quickly, while the overall OS business through the expanding smartphone market would be more healthy and stable. Bad sign, in our opinion.

 

Der Volkscomputer (II)

 

After WWII, once French automotive industry got rid from the German occupation authorities, they followed the Volkswagen concept.

Citroën launched its 2CV model, based on the same principles as the Volkswagen Beetle. It went even a bit further in its austerity. For example, it got just one headlight, for pure cost savings and simplicity. As the Germans in the 1930s, France after 1945 was in badly need for economical recovery.

If iPads or iPhones are the leading concept, the Volkswagen of our times, we guess we could say CitroĂ«n’s 2CV follow as the Androids came after the iPhones…

alt

 

Monday, 29 November 2010

Der Volkscomputer

 

Back in the 1930s, Germany was in the middle of its reindustrialization as a necessary step to get ready for the war that was already cooking in Hitler’s mind. Besides the reinforcement of the pure military industry, there was a strong recovery of the country’s economic infrastructure, what meant not only basic industry, but communications too. The plan for “die Deutsche AutobĂ€hne”, the German highways network was being deployed to.

In coordination with this, the German government of the time decided as well that the automotive industry should as well be a fundamental part of these plans, including the production of a cheap car that could be afforded by the average German family. That was the birth of one of the automobile industry icons: The Volkswagen Beetle. In fact, that is what Volkswagen meant: A car for the people, for the folk. Cars manufactured at that time were really expensive for an average German, who saw Mercedes, Opel, Maybach or BMW as unreachable items. The Great Depression of 1929 or the recovery from WWI were still too high economic loads for German citizens.

Incidentally, we shall mention that the industrialist awarded the necessary support to fulfill the project was Ferdinand Porsche. Curiously enough, we think nobody would associate the name Porsche to an average car for an average citizen in an average country, would they?

Despite the progression of WWII, still after the war the Beetle was there, and it did hit the right combination of price, market segment and product features. It was the right product at the right place in the right time to become an industrial success.

Not as powerful and fancy like Mercedes, Alfa Romeo, Citroen, Opel, Ford, Buick, Oldsmobile or Chevrolet; not as expensive either, it still was enough: Four wheels at a reasonable price that made the car acceptable for basic transportation needs, and was relatively easy and cheap to produce too. Factories were set up in Brazil, Mexico and China.

Later on, it even became fashionable: It’s typical and unique design (unchanged for decades!) came to a point in which it was perceived as cool, fancy and stylish. Not only it became an icon for the industry, but as well for a full generation of users. Even there have even been “revival editions”, special batches with this or that feature, that have been sold as limited series, with real high prices and margins.

It has been one of the best selling cars worldwide. To the point, in fact, that starting from the Beetle, a full line up was developed under the Volkswagen name, which, after having been a name designated to one specific car, has turned into a worldwide brand, and in fact, a worlwide industrial company. The Volkswagen brand is in fact one of the best recognized brands in the whole world, similar to Coca-Cola, General Motors, IBM or other. Under the Volkswagen brand, there are no more Beetles in production, but there are Golfs, Jettas, Passats, Touareg SUVs, trucks, minivans… and the industrial group own other brands such as Audi, Skoda, SEAT…

It looks that iPads are indeed repeating the Volkswagen story. For some, iPad turns to be the affordable Mac. If Mac is a Porsche, iPad is the Beetle… and Ferdinand Porsche himself has re-incarnated in Steve Jobs!

But as we write this, we even think the story goes further… we think the very first affordable Mac was the iPod/iPhone duo. That was indeed the very first Beetle, the first Mac experience for many people. As a matter of fact, would it be false to say that iPad’s success is based on the iPod’s or on the iPhone’s? And isn’t Mac Pros, Mac Airs as well benefitting from the halo of iPads?

Apples to apples

 

We have read an interesting summary of an analysis made on smartphone users’ loyalty to the brand of their current handset.

The conclusions driven there seem reasonable, though we believe one should be cautious when drawing conclusions.

We think the smartphone market, booming these days, might change a lot in short time, so many things are still developing and reaching users as we write this, that today’s conclusions may be completely different in a few months from now.

If loyalty is a reflection of satisfaction, we’d still need to define how satisfaction is measured. We still need to be clear about what it really means to the user. It is not the same thing a professional that has been given a Blackberry by his employer, for example, to use it for professional email and SMS than a university student that basically might want his phone for chatting, web browsing and facebook logging.

To measure satisfaction, one would need to know the cost a given product has meant to the user, and the expectations he really had about what he got. If we were given a smartphone for the first time for free by an employer of ours, which allowed us to do email on-the-go (assumed our previous phone did not allow us to), we would be very happy with that, regardless the OS (Android, IOS4 or Symbian, for example), especially if it is our company that pays the bill. We would not be more loyal to the handset brand than however loyal our employer were.

As well, if we were to use a Windows Mobile phone after having had an iPhone or Android, our satisfaction/loyalty would be seriously reduced…

As well, there are many factors that can influence user satisfaction or loyalty which might not depend on the handset you are using, nor the OS it supports. What about the carrier service, possibilities or limitations? What about its service plan, the cost of it? For some customer segments, it might be as well important the brand perception or how “cool” might a given device look or feel. We know of many cases where teenagers ask mom and dad for a Blackberry just because mom or dad use one, or just because the most popular mates at school have one each, for whatever reason.

Hard to measure loyalty or user satisfaction, and hard to extrapolate results for predicting future volumes or sales.

We see the current smartphone market more like the case of the youngster that recently got his car driver’s license for the first time. The prospect of moving from being a bike user to driving a car on his own is so exciting to him that he will be the happiest person in the world to have his car, no matter if it is a brand new convertible Ferrari sportscar, or mom’s 20-year old Volkswagen, that she recently replaced by a new one. At the end of the day, both cars open for the kid a new world of possibilities, one way or another, that were so far inaccessible to him.

In a market so much subject to change in very short time frames, conclusions from this kind of surveys should then need to be very carefully managed and understood, we think, making sure one compares “apples to apples” to make those conclusions really valid or useful. By the way, those who prefer Blackberry might prefer to compare “berries to berries”…

Sunday, 28 November 2010

First love

 

We are sure almost everybody remembers his/her first teenage love, his/her first date, and, of course, his/her first kiss. Despite actual age, or whatever circumstances each person had, we think there is a common denominator for all those situations, something all them share. We talk about the lack of real life experience of those persons, discovering what we think is probably the most important aspect of human life.

Inexperienced as everybody is in first love experience, after the person gets a more or less explicit confirmation by his/her partner that both of them are together, the typical question they make themselves immediately after is “and now, what?”.

Unable to answer this question in a precise way, then those fortunate ones that enjoy that situation may start behaving strangely, incoherently, inconsistently just because they have never gone through that before. Older people, when watching them, probably smile and justify them remembering their own experiences…

After this experience, which frequently turns to nothing (how many people do you know that have ended up sharing their lives with their very first love?), people are supposed to get more mature, and manage better and better their next experiences until they settle down. This is what actually happens, but, as nobody’s perfect, there are always clamorous exceptions.

Enter the Gorilla (aka Big Ape Steve) to demonstrate the case for us:

The not-really-so-successful first smartphone experience by this guys was windows mobile, who was quickly wiped out by Nokia and particularly Blackberry like the best football player in the grade at school usually takes the most glamorous cheerleader from her previous boyfriend.

And now these guys come back… supposedly having learnt from the past. Not really being precise with the product positioning (consumer versus enterprise, work versus fun, or any other user segmentation you want), as you may recall from the “Really!” marketing campaign, not they seem to be willing to demonstrate the world precisely that: They have learnt from the past, and they are different from what they used to be: If Mobile was for work, Phone 7 is for fun.

Learnt what from when? For God’s sake, with less apps than Apple or Android, with less developers than the formers, with less brand recognition, and with precedents like Zune dramatically behind iTunes, how can they claim any strength in the consumer world, in fun?

If there had to be any strength within these guys, it would be clearly related to the enterprise market with the supposedly easy integration on the Office Suite within their OS… though we can hardly imagine, besides email and very basic usage of Excel or Word, any intensive use of Office documents in a screen smaller than a tablet.

Again erratic, inconsistent, and eventually behaving like a teenager who just came home after his first kiss: “so now what?”. And while they make their minds up, market will keep being rushed by Apples, Androids and even Nokias and Blackberries who might have eaten the pie and just leave the crumbs for them when they decide something consistent.

As we said before, nobody’s perfect. Still, you may always find one which is even less than anybody else.

Saturday, 27 November 2010

No Barbie doll for Christmas

 

We do not have a precise idea of how many Barbie dolls have been sold throughout the years and throughout the world. But we think millions of them. What means that for years millions of girls have played around with them.

The majority of girls might have likely used those dolls as sort of role models, making them act the way they would like to be after having grown up. The dolls turn then to be a representation of what girls want for themselves in the future.

It would be reasonable to think that this Christmas Santa Claus will be delivering to millions of girls in the world another big batch of Barbie dolls to millions of girls who will go on playing with them as well.

We are sorry for Steve. No Barbie doll for him this year.

Friday, 26 November 2010

Cheap fuel

 

As long as cars need fuel, its price (as insurance’s, maintenance’s, taxes…) ought to be added to the total cost of owning one.

Cheap gas or lower taxes do not guarantee any given car is better than other using a different type of fuel or subject to higher taxes.

It’s the total ownership and driving experience what matters.

And, by the way, the fact that a given fuel type today might be cheaper than another does not ensure it won’t change in the future, once the car has been bought.

Not really sure smartphone users have really analyzed their potential expense on apps when they decide to buy one.

We do not therefore think this is necessarily going to provide any effective help to Windows Phone 7 in its struggle against iPhones or Androids… and we are not really sure this is going to make very happy developers, as their financials won’t have the same prospects as the ones provided by developing for Androids or iPhones.

 

The German Choice

 

Since 1943, many German cities were heavily and systematically bombed by the USAAF and the RAF. The Allies strategy at that time was to use these bombings as a means to help their Soviet friends in the Eastern Front and to weaken Germany in preparation for invading Europe in the West, planned for 1944.

Hamburg, in Northern Germany, was one of the cities included in the bombing plan. After the war, in fact, as many other German cities, it had to be reconstructed from the ground. Anglo-Americans called the bombing of Hamburg Operation Gomorrah. Explicit enough, we’d say.It lasted 8 days and 7 nights.

One of those nights, in late July 1943, hundreds of American bombers approached the city, and started dropping its cargo. Several thousand feet below, a woman had to hurry to the bomb shelter as the nearby buildings started to be hit by the bombs, and fire caught in them. After several days and nights of no sleep, bombing targeted her neighborhood.

The woman was trying to race among hundreds of other women, men, elders and children. Her husband, an infantry officer in Russia, was not there to help, so she had to take care of her three children, aged 2, 5 and 7.

Panic was all over the place, shelters to few and small, were almost fully packed, so being the closest one impossible to enter, the woman had to go on to the next one.

More bombing, more buildings scrambling down, and the fire. Fire tornadoes everywhere (Gomorrah, remember?) with flames roaring so loud that is was impossible to hear the screaming and yelling from the people, from the women, form the elders, from the children, no matter how collapsed the streets were, hos close to each other people were.

The woman was exhausted, and so were her children. Carried along by the mass of people looking for protection, she could just hold her youngest boy in one arm, and hold her 5 year old boy with another. She had no more hands, and just seconds to decide.

But it was the toughest decision in her life. Which kid should she hold, who should run the risk to be left behind? She looked at her eldest, a 7 year old girl, and instructed instructed her to hold her mother’s skirt tight and keep running behind her, as close as she could.

The little girl could not make it. The crowd overran her, and she lost her mother and brothers ahead. Her brothers, held my their mother, made it to the bomb shelter. Two years later, they were still alive. the 5 year old boy, decades later, became one of the directors at Dresdner Bank in the Bundesrepublik Deutschland.

One of us met him years ago, in fact. This is not a fake story.

What choice do you make when you know that whatever you choose you are going to lose?

That German woman had to face a tough choice that would haunt her the rest of her life.

We would not like to be in the shoes of other Germans who have to make very hard decisions these days. And whatever they choose, they will suffer quite much.