A tribute to the oracle (II)

 

Well, a reader/friend suggested additional music to add to the oracle’s playlist...

Yachts, fancy parties, illegal liaisons, private jets… and underworld spies. About perfect!

not that Carly either, kid…

just in case, here you got the lyrics…

You walked into the party like you were walking onto a yacht
Your hat strategically dipped below one eye
Your scarf it was apricot
You had one eye in the mirror as you watched yourself gavotte
And all the girls dreamed that they'd be your partner
They'd be your partner, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you?
You had me several years ago when I was still quite naive
Well you said that we made such a pretty pair
And that you would never leave
But you gave away the things you loved and one of them was me
I had some dreams, they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you? don't you?
I had some dreams they were clouds in my coffee
Clouds in my coffee, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you?
Well I hear you went up to Saratoga and your horse naturally won
Then you flew your Lear Jet up to Nova Scotia
To see the total eclipse of the sun
Well you're where you should be all the time
And when you're not you're with
Some underworld spy or the wife of a close friend
Wife of a close friend, and...
You're so vain, you probably think this song is about you
You're so vain, I'll bet you think this song is about you
Don't you? don't you? don't you?

A tribute to the oracle

 

Well, yesterday we recommended a little relax to the oracle. Though he is known for being a serious fan of Sun Tzu’s, maybe he is precisely falling into one of his traps. The Chinese philosopher advises to make you enemy more choleric if he is choleric in a given point in time, as this will lead him to irrational behavior, and will drive him to more mistakes. So, Big Mouth Larry, cool off a bit, won’t you?

All this story about theft and espionage, however, reminds us of the classic James Bond movies, doesn’t it? Super-villains to hate, super-heroes to love… Music sometimes helps relaxation.

So here we offer you, Big Mouth, a little musical suggestion that might suit you (sorry for the word, but with all these suing around, we couldn’t help it).

Not the same Carly you’d hate, is she? And tell your tennis colleague she’s not fishy, would you?

 

For those who want a transcript of the lyrics, there you go…

Nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby you're the best.
I wasn't lookin'
But somehow you found me
I tried to hide from your love light
But like heaven above me
The spy who loved me
Is keepin' all me secrets safe to night
And nobody does it better
Though sometimes I wish someone could
Nobody does it quite the way you do
Why'd you have to be so good.
The way that you hold me
Whenever you hold me
There's some kind of magic inside you
That keeps me from runnin'
But just keep it comin'
How'd you learn to do the things you do
And nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby
baby
darlin' you're the best
Baby you're the best
baby you're the best

Reading or playing at the oracle

 

Quick appendix to our previous post…

Apparently Léo Apotheker, by the way, is going to be traveling around the world meeting customers and HP teams as a good start for his new position at HP.

A secondary objective might probably be irritating the oracle (yukyuk).

So here is our little contribution to cool the oracle down a bit. Maybe he should relax a bit reading, playing games other than tennis, or both things!

Soooo obvious, that we’d better apologize in advance.

Note: Sorry kid, but this one’s Nintendo… no oracle software there… (hihihihihihihihihi)

Armani-labeled suits…

 

So here we go…Today the news is reproducing almost everywhere an email submitted by the oracle regarding the case of TomorrowNow’s, scheduled for the first day in November. There are even quite funny references to that (not saying the content is not serious).

But as we go through these references, we miss a certain link that explains why the outbursts from the oracle are coming these days, before the trial actually starts.

After all the mess about certain article published in NYT, a few days ago SAP formally asked for a gag order against the oracle.

And we think that this is probably one of the reasons why the oracle has actually exploded and certainly has done it before the trial started.

Should the gag order come effective, all the information and media influence about it would remain within the courtroom. So in certain way, this email from Big Mouth Larry is one more attempt to influence jurors before he must shut up publicly. it would be consistent with his style, as we recall his declarations about Mark Hurd’s ousting, and many other examples of his particular verbosity.

And trying to understand what he means in this email, we wonder what the need or purpose of sending it is .

First: He is not addressing that much the case itself, but more the fact of Léo Apotheker, former SAP CEO and currently HP CEO, attending the trial should he be called or not. His main point is this one. It is Léo Apotheker’s presence. The German exec is just one more witness in a longer list. SAP, the offender company, is hardly mentioned but incidentally, as the previous employer of Léo Apotheker.

Second: If he does have evidence about any wrongdoing by Léo Apotheker, then he indeed has a won case, and naturally Justice will grant him his demands. But it is up to the jurors to decide the verdict, not general public, and certainly not journalists. The case will be settled in a courtroom, not in parallel trials online.

Third: He boldly dares to guess HP’s plans of keeping Léo Apotheker away from the US in order to avoid having to attend the trial. Who is Big Mouth Larry to suggest cowardice of others?

We think that some explanation to the previous items lies in the hypothetical rationale in Big Mouth Larry’s feverish mind. If you want, the situation looks very much like crime investigation: The first suspects are usually those thought by investigators to get some kind of benefit from the crime.

One: By distracting its CEO, the oracle hits directly HP top managers. He would delay the effective start date at HP of Apotheker, and would have as well HP’s top managers sort of “distracted” too.

Two: All the energy and resources that Léo has and will have to dedicate to this issue won’t be therefore devoted to HP.

Three: HP’s reputation will be damaged. HP has already been too much in the news in the news because of legal matters: HP Board being sued by shareholder groups, HP suing Mark Hurd for lack of ethics, more shareholders suing HP for how the Hurd ouster was managed… not to mention earlier (and not so old) suit that cost the job to former chairwoman Patricia Dunn and so forth.

Four: Driving attention to Léo Apotheker in particular, and to HP and SAP at a broader level, effectively removes it from Mark Hurd primarily and Charles Phillips secondarily, much more tied to the oracle than to HP or SAP. This guys badly need it.

Five: Particularly related to Mark Hurd, this is a big favor from big-brother Larry… We could imagine, right after his ouster, Mark Hurd running out of tears to his tennis dear friend: “Larry, Larry, look at what they did to me; Larry, would you please stand for me?…”

Six: The self-assigned myth of invincibility and being above Good and Evil for Larry himself. Blinded by self-pride, the guy probably feels the need to prove himself and incidentally the rest of the world that his word is law… And a particularly sensitive community within the “rest of the world” is made up from the ranks at the oracle precisely. We would not be surprised if Big Mouth Larry expects his employees to fall down to their knees and surrender to the power of their Leader, like all those Ford-worshippers in George Orwell’s 1984.

It is said that Larry Ellison dresses in Armani suits. Being as rich as him, it is something that we could expect…Probably there are many Armani suits in the meetings and forums Larry attends.

   

Now, what we should not expect is to see are Armani suits in slum bullies brawling.

Elegance is more than just paying thousands of dollars for perfectly tailored suits, and ranking 6th in the list of wealthiest people in the globe…

If you’d follow me, it is not the suit: It is more the way you use and wear the suit. Armani, by the way, is just a label.

 

Ferrari is red

 

We are entering into the final steps of the Formula 1 world championship. We’ve got Red Bulls, Ferraris, McLaren-Mercedes topping chances to win, and many others.

All of these teams manage quite a lot of money, don’t they? Well paid managers and pilots, lots of PR and press around… Quite a numbers of sponsors who invest little fortunes that could solve our lives for several generations to come. Lots of glamour, lots of technology as well.

There is no clear dominant team, and the difference between one and the other is measured in milliseconds! Huh, quite detailed and precise measurements have to be in place to differentiate a winner from a loser.

When we see each of these teams performing, whether in qualifying sessions or in the actual Grand Prize race, each parameter is measured, verified, checked, and calculated. We do not know the throughputs in their computers, but must be big… and reliable. And this is just putting into practice hours and hours of background engineering work at the same detail level and requirement.

At the end, the difference between two of these teams can be summarized in a single word: Details. As many as you want, as technical as you like. But details, at the end of the day. Just details.

And these details will mean, at the end of the season, that several of the teams that race this year will not be there in the next season, and their place will be taken by new upstarts who will have to face the challenge of the details to survive.

In the race for dominating the PC industry we can see as well great teams around: The Apples, the HPs, the Dells, the Acers, the Sonys… and trailing Fujitsus, clone brands and others…

Any of these do manage quite a lot of money… And have well paid CEOs and managers; lots of PR around, and quite a number of partners who invest little fortunes that could solve our lives for several generations to come. Lots of glamour as well (fishy CEO events perhaps, or sailing oracles, or HP, Acer, Intel and AMD sponsoring high speed cars).. and, yes, we were forgetting: Lots of technology as well.

There is no clear dominant team, and the difference between one and the other is measured in basic points in share performance at Wall Street! Huh, quite detailed and precise measurements have to be in place to differentiate a winner from a loser.

When we see these guys performing, whether in Consumer market or in big Enterprise business, each parameter is measured, verified, checked and calculated, with as well lots of time, energy, money and resources invested in background tasks, hidden to the external observers.

At the end, the difference between two of these teams can be summarized in a single word: Details. Just details, that make or break success.

From what we have read in the news recently, it seems that Ferrari is the likeliest one to get a pilot winning the championship. If you want details, Ferrari’s leading pilot walks slowly all the length of each racing track a few hours before the actual race to see closely every detail in the circuit and leverage that when driving. Ferrari is red. The best apples in America, are red too.

Curiously enough, the second likeliest team to place a winning pilot is Red Bull. Well, the only “red” they have is in the name.

Incidentally, Renault, who already quit its chances to win anything after two years of glory some time ago, is sponsored by a certain HP.

Testosterone and medicine

 

It has been repeated in many different media that Larry Ellison (66), Pontifex Maximus at The Oracle finds IBM as its ultimate foe, or, more politically correct, its number one competitor.

That very same Pontifex Maximus, in a questionable move, recently hired a certain Mark Hurd (53), former CEO at HP, to join its board of directors, and serve as President for Sales and Marketing.

Hurd’s hiring started a controversial action from its former employer that involved a lawsuit filed against him on the grounds of potential disclosure of HP’s confidential information, which was finally settled for a bunch of dollars in stock, in our opinion. In the meantime, Larry Ellison, contrary to what could have been expected from his reputation, kept what could be thought of as a prudent silence, yet quite eloquent for our taste.

This last move was made at the expense of Charles Phillips (50), who has to leave his comfortable armchair to Ellison’s tennis buddy.

Charles Phillips, as we have mentioned in an earlier post to this blog, showed some habits that made Mr Hurd a natural replacement for him, by the way…

Funny enough, the now well known emulator of Tiger Woods has been appointed CEO at Infor, Not as important as the Oracle, still relevant in direct competition to Larry’s company.

Well, curiously enough, guess which are Infor’s strategic partners… Do you find the explicit references to something big and blue?

We have no idea of the details in Charles Phillips severance package from the Oracle, if any, nor we know anything about potential lawsuits against him from The Oracle in the name of Ethics or anything like that. We do not know if the Pontifex Maximus will be able to hold his mouth and prevents his tongue to be unleashed. We do not know either if Phillips plays tennis with Infor execs… But you would need to agree with me that the story is too good to keep it unwritten.

While the Pontifex Maximus tastes his own medicine, we will wonder what happens to men when they reach their fifties… is it a sudden unbalance in their testosterone index what happens at that age?

And, frankly, to those who still believe in Father Christmas and the ability of powerful public people to keep private life separate from professional life, now do you feel comfortable about having Charles Phillips advising President Obama about economic recovery? (Please note who sponsors the news)

 

Sirens’ songs and sirens’ screams

 

In times of economical slowdown and scary unemployment rates, there still can be found people that don’t seem to be lacking work for some time. It could be a good thing to see this if it were from the distance. Not for the HP Board guys, we believe, that are (again) getting stuck in legal stuff. This time it is Saginaw Police and Fire Pension Fund who claims justice, according to Bloomberg’s

Not at all good for the company they lead, as legal issues do not usually add value to shareholders, do they? Can HP afford losing more time, energy, resources and ultimately its reputation?

It may be argued that the main target here is (again) Mark Hurd, CEO at HP for the matter of this lawsuit. Still some names from the HP Board are being included there. But yet, the issue with finger-pointing Hurd is that he is just the main face standing for HP before court.

Will this impact Oracle too? We believe the impact in Oracle will not be significant. After all, Hurd has two strong execs to back him up at home, Larry Ellison as CEO and Safra-Katz as co-president. They will be able to manage, as they would even in the case that Hurd could be 100% on board. Still the guy’s reputation will be stained once more.

Time will let us know what goes on with this story, but we cannot help a compassionate smile after how fishy the guy is getting by the day: Trapped by Fisher-woman, haunted by the siren chants from the Oracle, chased by the siren screams from the Police and Fire Depts at Saginaw, Michigan.

We wonder how the guy would answer an invitation for dinner in a seafood restaurant…

 

.

They might hear…

 

Many times in their lives, in many different aspects of it, people have gone through having an idea, having a contribution to make to someone else, trying to improve things, attempting to feel valuable for themselves.

In those few cases where an eloquent and awkward, yet devastating silence is not the easy answer of those who already have made their minds up, it is not uncommon to get a polite smile back together with nice sounding words: “I hear you, but…”

These words are usually just a standard introduction to enumerating all the reasons that person has to let you know in front of everybody in the room how stupid you have been for attempting to speak up, and to make sure you understand your opinion will be treated with kingly disregard. The real plain translation is more about “I already made my mind up; I have been magnanimous enough to let you know about my thoughts.Now shut up, and do as you are told”.

Someone said that courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is as well what it takes to sit down and listen; he was awarded a Nobel Prize, by the way.

How many times will we still miss a reply starting with “I listen to you, and…”

The Greater Evil

 

In an obvious reference to justifying an open alliance with Iosif Stalin, Sir Winston Churchill dared to publicly state that “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons”.

Quite a bold statement, indeed, for it was pretty much inconceivable at that time that the British people would find themselves friends with the arch-enemy, Bolshevik Soviet Union.

If we review Winston Churchill’s memories, we can even find traces of personal friendship (at least to Sir Winston’s perception) at the same level of the one the author declares for Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Of course, the situation in Europe and the rest of the world at that time more than justified such strange friendship, beyond a simple political and military alliance, and what Sir Winston really meant was that if Stalin was bad, Hitler and Nazism was even worse. He was choosing to oppose the Greater Evil.

However, we are not so unfamiliar to seeing weird friendships every now and them in areas such as war or politics, aren’t we? And, should we accept the thesis that business is not much different of war and politics, we should be used to seeing strange partnerships at different levels in this environment too. Like the case of the HP merger with Compaq, or the sudden reconcilement of Dell and EMC.

Furthermore, sometimes strange friendships in business go beyond mergers or alliances and reach individuals. The most recent case we have learned about has to do with Mark Hurd’s hiring by Oracle.

One of the most frequent reasons quoted to justify or explain Hurd’s acceptance of a job below the ranking of a CEO was that Oracle CEO Larry Ellison and Mark are friends, buddies, pals and other synonyms, besides the fact of playing tennis together every now and then.

Leaving aside that tennis matches by these two individuals would probably be similar to watching a Jane Fonda’s remake of one of her honeymoons (Ellison being 66 and Hurd being 53 is no sophomore match despite how gallant their sports style was thirty years ago), their so-called friendship still has a lot to go through to be understood or simply trusted. 

After all, Hurd was still leading the HP armies when Larry Ellison started a de-facto war by stepping into the hardware business after having purchased Sun Microsystems. A Sun in the Twilight was no match to Hurd’s hordes, of course, but backed by the power of the Oracle, it could quickly turn into a serious threat.

In such situation, it could not possibly be a part of the Oracles’ wildest dreams to get Hurd on board…but then mysterious Fate in the form of a non-sophomoric (Jodie Fisher is 50) scandal struck the industry, forced Hurd’s way out of HP, and opened the opportunity for the Oracle, who simply ignored everything after Hurd’s ouster and quickly got him into the ranks.

Hurd did probably not hesitate much, and soon was presented as co-President of the Oracle, reporting to Larry Ellison, in hail and praise. He succeeded Charles Phillips, who, by the way, was not precisely candidate to sainthood himself.

From bitter foes to intimate friends in a matter of days? Difficult to believe, despite whatever business HP and the Oracle might have done in the past, and despite how many “alliances” they formed.

Was not Ellison “making at least a favorable reference to Hurd in front of his own particular House of Commons”? We believe he did. And then, naturally, the next question is sort of obvious: Who is then the Greater Evil? Well, we think that Ellison is so proud of himself that he could eventually believe himself a sort of Hercules fighting against an Hydra or IBMs, SAPs, HPs and a portion of the rest of the Universe.

Going forward, we as well see deeper parallelism with Sir Winston’s case, if we look to the personal level of this weird friendship. As in the Churchill-Stalin case, there is probably a love-hate and fear-attraction mutual feeling between the two. In our opinion, Hurd wants to become CEO again, and should Oracle get to the dominant position Ellison wants it to be, hitting the CEO job by then would be a more than acceptable settlement for him to cool down his testosterone…

On the other hand, Ellison would crave the execution ability that Hurd demonstrated at HP, and keeping Safra Katz as the gatekeeper, just in case, at least while Hurd proved he would not screw up again, and returned part of his cost in results for the Oracle.

Forced equilibrium in any case between these two heavy weights (and heavy egos) that we do not really believe will last for ever and will potentially end up in a burst similar to the breaking of Stalin and the Western Powers at the dawn of the Cold War.

Both of them, Ellison and Hurd, will have to pay a price for it should it happen… Being the 6th richest man in the world would allow Ellison to afford it. In the case of Hurd, lets hope this time he goes for more mature toys, and does not pay the Fisher-Price.

God save the King

 

Sailing has been the traditional way of transportation by sea for ages. From small fishing boats to heavy galleons, all countries and all cultures have used it throughout History.

By the end of 19th Century, traditional sailing vessels gave way to steamers, and nowadays we even use nuclear power to propel ships, and classical sails have almost disappeared from our seas and oceans.

Replacing sails with steam engines was more than a mere change of technology. Sails and taking advantage of winds was a technology specifically designed for getting people and cargo over the waters to different destinations. Other than that, there was hardly any other use of wind or sails specifically for transportation (windmills do use wind and sails, but certainly not for transportation).

On the contrary, steam engines where not originally intended for ships or boats. The original target was being able to transform energy coming from burning coal into mechanical energy that could be used in many different ways. One of them was, actually, moving propellers in a boat, but as well it could be used to move a cart and, thus, opening room for the inventions of the train and cars, for example.

By the end of 2010, another technology has apparently been declared officially dead. Sony has recently announced the end of their manufacturing of good-old Walkman devices based on cassette tapes.

Far from being a mere change of technology, it’s apparent heir, the iPod, has been a complete revolution. From electromagnetic tape with a mechanical basis specifically designed for audio, we now have silicon-based chips to reproduce all sorts of multimedia content in an interconnected environment. The technology underneath an iPod was not either designed specifically for audio, no matter audio is just one of its applications.

Therefore, we believe iPod is not just the heir of Walkman. Discman was the heir of the declining product line. iPod is a complete change of dynasty. Not only has occupied the natural market space of Walkman; it has broadened it and its potential is such that many more competitors to iPod have appeared than Walkman ever had.

And nothing of this happened by chance… It takes much more than pure chance to replace a dynasty: Incoming Kings of the new one need to will it, plan it, execute it.

The King is dead; God save the King!  

The most from all of them

 

Successful leaders often rely on other successful leaders form the past, learn from them, and eventually follow them.

Businessmen are as well leaders, and we have seen, heard and read a lot about Mark Hurd, who seems to have been able to draw a lot of attention on him in the last months.

From certain points of view he has a successful career, and he does not seem to escape from the main thesis of this post, as we have noticed in his behavior some great historical characters he probably is following.

George Washington, first in war, first in peace, and first in the hearts of his countrymen, as delivered in his funeral oration.

Thomas Jefferson: 3^rd  President of the United States, builder of the Democratic Party,  One of the Founding Fathers.

Abraham Lincoln,  who saved his country from breaking apart during American Civil War, and signed the Thirteenth Amendment to the US Constitution forbidding slavery.

Alexander Hamilton, first Secretary of the Treasury of the United Sates. He established the Bank of the United States.

Andrew Jackson, 7th President of the United Sates, tough and hard, a clear dominator of his time, reshaped Democratic Party.

Ulysses S. Grant, 18th President of the United States, war hero in American Civil War, commander in chief of the Union Army.

Benjamin Franklin, probably the most influential of the Founding Fathers.

Great men they were, great Americans, according to History, and it should not surprise at all they might have become role models for Mark. It would be consistent with Mark’s character and personality that he wanted to get the most of them. We think he will, come what may.

 

As a side note, it could be possible that readers of this post are not familiar to the portraits displayed above. In order to get the audience of this post more familiar to this great American characters, we display below more popular depictions of them, in the same order as above.

  

 

Apples might grow in Stalingrad

 

Throughout History, triumphant armies have always been typically portrayed as if they were made of the finest warriors, stronger than the enemy. Kind of super-heroes, if you want… and, certainly, superbly equipped. Of course, for specific cases where the main message to be delivered is special courage under clear adverse conditions, equipment could be deliberately shown as weak or even minimal.

From the first documented cases in Ancient Greece and in Roman History to modern propaganda, victorious warriors are depicted as sort of He-Men, way beyond Niezsche’s Übermenschen. This is, by the way, adorably represented in BBC’s Blackadder series (Blackadder goes forth), portraying the English Army in France in World War I.

As a consequence, we tend to have a too simplified perception when it comes to war. We tend to think it is a matter of best equipment and best men and that’s it.

This thinking has played a huge role, in our opinion, in shaping the world the way it is today. From all the events in recent History, we honestly believe World War II could be singled as the individual event that has had the heaviest weight in the world we can see every day. Within World War II, should we have to choose a single milestone that determined the final outcome, we would pick the Battle of Stalingrad, as we think it was the turning point in the war. Before Stalingrad, it was possible for Germany to win the war. After Stalingrad, Germany was doomed. The same German High Command who made it possible to reach Stalingrad was as well to be held responsible for the disaster. around 300,000 troops surrendered in the limit of starvation at sub-zero temperatures.

It was not a matter of men: In fact, they were the same men that annihilated Poland, France Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Baltic States and put Great Britain to what Winston Churchill called its “darkest hour” in 18 months.

It was not a problem of equipment, weapons or resources. The German Army that invaded the Soviet Union was way ahead of the Red Army of the time, whose only advantage was the number of available men, usually ill-equipped, by the way.

The real and fundamental problem there was supply chain. To put it simple, precisely for having better troops and better equipment, the German Army advanced far too much to reach Stalingrad, thus letting supply lines become extremely thin and vulnerable. The lines that connected the German advancing armies depended on too stretched supply connections that remained extremely vulnerable in their flanks. After holding, thanks mainly to the wide Volga river, the German advance in Stalingrad itself, the Soviets leveraged their only strength (the huge mass of foot soldiers available from Siberian units) to outflank the city and strike on the weakest German point, the supply lines. Outflanking the Germans from the North and South sides of Stalingrad, the Soviets closed the encirclement several hundred miles West of the Volga river, isolating the ful German 6th Army, that weeks later, in January 1943, unconditionally gave up to the last man of a mass of 300,000 troops.

Now we may change scenarios, and take a look to the guys with one of the best reputations regarding equipment and men. In a way, they are at war… and the crucial battle they are about to fight is the upcoming Holiday Season. It is going to be their own Little Stalingrad, as it could determine quite much their future, given the fierce competition they have in front of them and the potential amount of resources they’ll need to succeed.

We are talking Apple. Undisputed reputation as of their products as much as of themselves as a company.

And we believe they will succeed. They have thought beyond the standard clichés we spoke about in the above lines, and they have made sure that, no matter how far their supply sources are, they have:

First: Secured the sources, so they won’t fall short if the so badly needed ammunition, food, tools and spare parts.

Second: Secured the lines, allowing them to resist flank attacks and guarantee deliveries on time.

Third: They have optimized the size and container capacities so they can move as much material as possible at the minimum possible expense and resource consumption.

Fourth: Self assured on logistics, they can afford to exploit the initiative in battle.

Apples for equipment, brilliant staff for the men, solid planned-in-advance logistics altogether, definitely, do make a winning combination. Or, should you prefer, they make an incredible Jobs.

Footnote: We dedicate this post to a very good friend of ours who recently suffered a very important personal loss. A veteran from WWII born during WWI, huge human background and values that he managed to share and pass on to our friend. Rest in peace. Chap, please accept our deepest condolences.   

No wedding, we’re afraid…

 

If you recall the last traditional weddings you might have been invited to, you will certainly remember the bride arriving to the ceremony. And if you squeeze a bit your brain, you might as well remember that she probably was late a reasonable time for. It is actually expected from her to be late on purpose, in order to increase expectation around her. But not too much. Arriving later than a reasonable timing is as worse as not arriving late at all. Like many other things in life, too much is as bad as too little, and finding the right balance becomes almost a form of art, not really at the reach of many people.

                                                             

There is still a second wave, a second wow effect, which spins around the scenery and the atrezzo around the bride. People will pay a lot of attention to any details of her costume, hairdo or make up.

All this wow thing is only justified for the uniqueness brides have around them during the wedding day. It is her guests want specifically to see, to talk to, or to get a nice picture with.

Being too late will, therefore, be a terrible sin for a bride on her wedding day… But still guests are likely to be a little tolerant and magnanimous as they are predisposed in favor of her. (Please note we are prudently avoiding to mention the classical guest, normally being the mother-in-law of some guest that justifies its mere existence with a lot of venomous critic they really enjoy spitting on the bride, the ceremony, the banquet and specifically on any guest younger then themselves). Being in this tolerant mood, should the sin occur, it might be forgiven if (and this is a big “if”) the bride avoids the second (and unforgivable) one, which is not looking magnificent form the top of her head to the end of her toes. If she doesn’t, there will be not a well-equipped enough toilet nor closet in miles around to fix a very bad first impression.

Should the bride have the slightest stain in her dress, the most unperceivable scratch in her make up, or simply one single hair out of its place, then the “someone’s-mother-in-law” effect will be unleashed as a thunderbolt throughout the guests and relatives, and something that was planned to be the most wonderful day in her life will turn into the worst, slowest and longest possible nightmare for both mortal sins, eventually leading to psychological issues for the bride and potential divorce in record time.

We have no idea about the social life or family setup of the guys responsible for the Windows Phone 7 launch at Microsoft. No idea either about their education nor manners.

                                                                              

But we seriously suspect the so-long-planned wedding between the market and WP7 operating system may not end like fairy tales. No matter if the bride’s father (ultimately a certain Steve Ballmer) is planning to throw in $400 million to ensure the most wonderful celebration. It could very well be ten times as much, result will more than probably remain unchanged.

First Sin: The bride has arrives real late. Too much even for the most unconditional fans and supporters of Microsoft, who, by the way, had not had too good experiences with previous girlfriends (ie Windows Mobile different versions), and while waiting for the bride, have been exposed to very nice-looking, well-educated and good-mannered alternative ladies (ie RIMM, IOS4, Android –yes, yes, we admit “Android” is not what you would call a nice-looking lady precisely). Even another late arrival as WebOS or an old-fashioned veteran like Symbian might be better considered than WP7 at this point.

Second Sin: Despite expectations, and knowing before-hand what the other ladies had been doing around for a lot of time, WP7 came handicapped: No matter how “Pure and Virginal” (Microsoft claims it was built brand new from scratch, breaking a historical family tradition of patching and patching it once and again, Service Pack 1 to Service Pack n), Apps are (very) limited, in the scale of 1 to 300 compared to IOS4, for instance; as well, App Developers are seriously restricted (no access to camera, for example) and basic features like “cut&paste” or flash capabilities simply do not exist. WP7 alone, conveniently hosted and supported by Microsoft, of course, threw away all the majesty that a proper bride needs for her wedding day.

If this were not enough, there is yet more…

In the classical marketing approach that Microsoft has accustomed all of us for years, once more they are overdoing themselves. Not happy with deserving eternal damnation without relief (those of you who have read some of the Bible know what we are talking about), they have already announced (vaguely, but they have) future upgrades and improvements that sound as scary as Service Pack Release Notes.

So Microsoft is planning to get the dollars from the customer and give him in return a limited product with limited development possibilities (already declined by some of the top guys there, like Layar or Fring), and a promise of having to travel though the desert for an unspecified period of time to eventually get to the end state they are supposed to have paid for. Simply fantastic… but only for making the script for a Hollywood B-series moviestarred by Barbra Streisand, Diane Keaton or Meryl Streep, so sad a romance this sounds like.

Whoever ends up willingly with the knot tied must really love this bride…

…what probably is a sacrifice Apple, HP, Nokia, HTC and others may be willing to assume.

You will tell

It appears the guys from Dell are going to to their own version of HP’s “Personal Again” stuff.

Well, it seems that HP’s results from that campaign paid off, and have not passed unnoticed to them.

For the moment, the level of investment is similar to HP’s, though they might have had more should they had not screwed up with their financials, according to a bunch of dollars’ fines recently awarded to them.

Anyway, we will se how it goes, and how far it reaches. We might say these guys are running similar risks to HP’s when it comes to advertising. Moreover, they even have further limitations, the main one not lacking a basic ingredient for today’s market needs if you really want to become personal as HP does, like an operating system to work on (WebOS).

We will certainly be able to tell it is going to be a Dell…as this former topper in the personal systems market will claim.

Given the company’s recent trajectory, its prospects and the market environment, not mentioning their internal leadership issue, those people that fall under their marketing spell will certainly tell when it comes to support, customer experience, quality issues that even reach court...

For Dell itself they might accept the suggestion of adding a little tag to their motto: “You can tell we are Dell, because it is just like Hell” (even if it only were because of Windows®)…

Nothing personal

 

In an attempt to grab back presence in the market, mainly in the consumer space, but collaterally in the more professional one, the guys at HP launched a massive marketing campaign a few years ago, “The Computer is Personal Again”.

It was a massive, integrated, worldwide campaign that certainly allowed HP to catch some attention and again recover some of the punch it had in earlier times, as you might have read in the above link. The main idea here was to make people understand that they could use HP hardware, mainly from the Personal Systems Group division, for their daily life.

Leaving aside stories on top execs that took too seriously the campaign motto, and engaged in fishy affairs too personally, the effect in the market was certainly notorious. HP made a good marketing job, and collected the corresponding results in its financial statements since the launch of the campaign.

Still we believe the campaign remained just that: A mere campaign. It did not fundamentally change a company that started from hardware and still is mainly hardware-based. Mark Hurd himself, as the last relevant CEO for the time being, based his strategy in being “the infrastructure leader”. This was not at all in synch with all the personal messaging, was it?

It appears that in fact, there is really nothing personal in the HP strategy. And the problem with this is that a significant part of the available IT hardware these days and in the near future is really going to be truly personal.

In a world where being online permanently gets more and more relevant, people will demand devices which suit them upfront. Not that a device is capable of whatever feature you could imagine and the user has to change his habits and customs to adapt himself to it. Not that much that manufacturers define how the world is going to be, but more how much manufacturers are able to offer a product and its services which are adapted to what the customer already knows he could do, and the way he wants to do it.

Smartphones, for instance, are today more powerful than PCs from five or six years ago. And you can carry them in your pocket. You can even do things with them you could not dream about with your old desktop unit 10 years ago. For an increasing number of people, they are their main tool for daily life: From work to personal purpose, entertainment or planning vacation. They store very private data, as their wallets or purses would. Is there anything more personal for someone than his own wallet?

Once you have quite a variety of operating systems, hardware manufacturers and telco carriers that fundamentally do not differ much from each other (including prices and fees), customers will choose the combination of device, operating system and carrier that makes it easier to just start to use the device, or that allows the easiest customization to tailor the end product to each individual, even letting him choose the color, texture and shape of the case!

Just look to the automobile industry. When mass production started in the times of revered Henry Ford, he got the famous question: “May customers choose different colors for their car"?”. And he made his famous reply: “Yes, as long as it is a Ford, a model T, and black”. At that time, all the possibilities around a car (a black Ford model T was a finished product) were beyond imagination, and features that today we take for granted in the simplest car did not yet exist in the most visionary pioneers of that industry. Today, when it comes to buying a car, the set of options and accessories sometimes reaches the volume of a pocket dictionary. Even the guys making the Mini (quite popular in Europe for decades) claim today that there are not two Minis alike. The idea being “your Mini is unique because you are unique”.

The guys at Apple, from the very moment the first idea sparked in Steve Jobs’ mind have always applied the same principle. From what the customers wants, from what the customer would like to have, from how the customer would like to use the product, they make all the way up to the components they might need to build the product, and as well to the how to build the unit. Moreover, the product would still not be released until it really was the most perfect item (by design, by quality, by functionality) that could be produced within the industrial environment of the time. Jobs’ himself is famous for being a perfectionist close to hysteria.

As an example, we might quote iPhones… An iPhone is basically an iPod Touch (a definite winner, a conqueror of users’ hearts) that gets telephone capabilities after it has proved a success. Symbian and Windows Mobile have been designed as phones that afterwards were to have added email, music, multimedia capabilities. Precisely the opposite approach.

Apple took a successful product and added valuable features and functionalities customers would be glad to pay for. When making their first calls with iPhones, they already knew how to use the device, and setting it up was a matter of seconds. Windows Mobile and Symbian devices were forcing users to adapt themselves to the smartphones they supported. No wonder that Apple fans are rather unconditional fans, and do not worry much about the product cost premium.

This is HP’s issue: How can you claim your product is personal when you are asking your customer to do what Microsoft Almighty allows you to do the way Microsoft Almighty forces you to do it?

To be personal again means that your device (notebook, tablet, smartphone…) has to be as unique as possible, and that, once the OS, hardware and carrier layers are put aside for a moment, can only be achieved with the right AppStore: Broad variety of developers and applications, easy to use kind of thing. And this matter, not being easy for a guy like Windows7 Mobile, will certainly be a major challenge to HP, no matter how good or bad WebOs is (judge by yourself).

We believe the market will be personal. For everybody, and this includes HP. And being personal will take more than millions of dollars spent in nice fonts, nicer ads, and some celebrities of the moment. Nothing personal, but you cannot afford having nothing personal.

Léo, hurry up!!!!

 

Disclaimer: The historical references to the tragedy of World War II used in this post are exclusively intended for educational and illustrative purposes. No comment herein should be understood as any kind of support (political, social, cultural, even military) to any of the parties involved in that conflict. References are made at high level, objectively, and from a pure historical perspective.

In particular, we would like to apologize Léo Apotheker, as he is explicitly mentioned for heading HP as corporation. We acknowledge that, given his family’s background in those years (as has been published), he may be particularly sensitive to anything related to the events that struck the worlds the way they did.

In late 1944, when the USAAF and the RAF dominated the Western and Central Europe skies almost unopposed, they suddenly had to face a new kind of aircraft. Something really revolutionary, something based on what for them was, in the best case, a lot of paperwork from physic theoreticians. It took some time for them to realize what they were up to.

As it soon was to be painfully realized, Germany had finally made it for the so-called “secret weapons” that would change the tide of the war, and deliver, according to German propaganda of the time, final victory against the rest of the world. We talk about jet propelled fighters, from which the top representative probably was Messerschmitt’s Me262 Schwalbe (“Swallow”).

Interesting to note that Swallows were the most technologically advanced piece ever. Best specs, every single flight established a new aviation record. British or American pilots would not even actually “see” the enemy, so fast and high it flew. Virtually undetectable, thus. It was never defeated in the air. The only way Allies found to beat or capture enemy units were on ground (lack of fuel and/or pilots) or by pilot defection to the Allied lines.

It is very probable that had had the German Air Force a couple od hundreds of these aircraft as early as 1940, Great Britain would not have won the Battle of England, Russia would have surrendered, and the US would have never entered the war in Europe.

The plane came. But is was too late. In fact 1942 started with Germany strong enough to be likely to win the war, but when it ended it was obvious to all the world but Germany that the war was lost for them. It was just a matter of time.

Best quality, best features, best design, best performance, maximum possibilities. A clear winner on paper, useless as a bottle of shampoo for actor Yul Brynner, because of several reasons:

First, it came too late. Germany was exhausted by late 1944, alone and surrounded by all the biggies, up to their home gates: the USA, the UK, the USSR, and representation from another forty-something nations from the free world. Clear dominant positions in the European skies of the big three.

Second, Germany lacked pilots. La crème of the German war pilots was already dead by then, or promoted to commanding ground posts, or dedicated to classical (ie propeller) planes. Even if part of the human force were to be transferred to jet units, there was no time nor resources for proper training.

Third, fuel was as scarce as ever. With no actual physical sources in the remaining areas controlled by the Germans, the little fuel available was synthetically produced, extremely expensive, and normally given priority to ground units trying to hold both the Eastern and Western fronts. Even worse, in some cases it went to other so-called “secret weapons”, like flying rockets V1 and V2.

Fourth, the German High Command made some key “positioning” mistakes, without clear guidance, or targets for those units. Clearly designed as fighters, they were eventually as much used as bombers, reconnaisance units and even transports.

HP has recently presented its WebOS 2.0.

Going through the details, one must admit it is impressive. A clear winner. Léo Apotheker has quite a number of reasons to feel well about this indeed. BUT:

First, would this not be too late? HP has spent fortunes on its former Smartphone line.based on dear Windows Mobile-no-matter-what-version, and the “secret weapon” is supposed to seek its place in skies which are heavily dominated by Android, IOS4 and eventually Win7 mobile (or Symbian, for the matter…).

Second, you need pilots to make the maximum of the units potential. You need apps… and app developers, call it trainers if you’d like. The “enemy” has them by the hundreds of thousands… and upping every day.

Third, the fuel these devices need is as well scarce. App developers will develop apps that are demanded, and demand for a new thing has to be created first. Back end R&D and strong support plus consultancy as well needs to stand behind, as ground personnel is needed to keep the planes in the air. All this to keep the right focus, not diverting priorities to other bombastic stuff that might in parallel happen to appear (storage, networking, software, whatever).

Fourth, Léo & Staff have to make sure positioning is right, and customer segments are addressed correctly. Corporate, Consumer, both? Tablets, smartphones, both?

Hurry up, Léo… but make sure the brains that you are putting in here should not oversee the basics.

Footnote: This post is dedicated to a good friend of ours that has the potential of the ME262 of the time, but every now and then gets confused about her own strategy and positioning to achieve goals. Differently from the original ME262 case, this person should understand that in this case, three years do not necessarily mean it is too late; even if it is not being yet realized, like Germans say, “Ende gut, Alles gut”…

Constipation by words

 

It normally is very healthy to eat fruit. In fact, it is much recommended here and there… moms of all times have had their little struggles here and there with their kids tough, but still, it is a good thing to do.

However, eating too much could be not so positive. When you have too many apples, for example, you might have either an indigestion issue, and afterwards hate them for ever on, or you could have a more or less severe case of constipation for which we kindly decline to comment further.

Difficult to say, in any case, how many apples represent the limit that separates a healthy diet from a traffic issue in the belly.

For instance, if we go back in History to the first documented case of issues around apples, we can see that it took just one bite for Eve and Adam to release the wrath of God and have them fired from the Garden of Eden. I guess that after having seen the results, they would indeed have chosen constipation rather than having to find a new home. Incidentally, we must add, that’s the moment when Evil probably invented mortgages, so Adam and Eve could afford housing for the large family they were supposed to deliver afterwards; at the end of they day, they had been expelled from Paradise with no stock options they could cash-in, and just with a little powerpoint slideset in the shape of a tree leave to cover their nakedness. Poor fools; the snake came around teling them that if they bit the apple, they would be like Larry Ellison, above Good and Evil…

To others, it takes quite many more apples to get severe issues.It looks as if after millions of them, Evil succeeded in making Steve Jobs believe he was like the Almighty, with power on life and death.

Dead on arrival they are, he claimed, like the Pope launching a Crusade (“Deus le volt”, Latin scholars may recall. ie, “God wills it”). The War Cry.

(in order to better play God, we believe the guy’s chief marketing officer should advise him to let his beards grow a bit longer)

An excess of self pride was the very reason for the Fallen Angel to break apart with God and pretend to corrupt God’s creation from the beginning by making Eve and Adam take the bit and the “byte”. Have too many apples driven you, dear Steve, the same direction?

Let the market decide. And make the most of it while you can. If Apples are so healthy (not only to your personal fortune, by the way), don’t you think that people will eat less berries, whether they are blue, red or black?

Great marketing stuff, all these stories about leading the market, creating the future, inventing tomorrow, blablabla. But it is just that: An enormous bluff that just sets the environment of choices for end users to select what fits them most.

In the US it is said that Ronald Reagan won the 1980 elections because he was running against Jimmy Carter; had he been running alone, he would have lost. This basically meant that it was not Reagan winning, but more about Jimmy Carter having screwed up all by himself. Be more elegant, and do not give in to the arrogance of basing your success in removing the credit of others that are not necessarily doing a bad job, Jobs.You have already got quite a number of things to be proud of. You do not need to insult the millions of smartphone, tablets, PCs, notebooks and mp3 players users who have not yet been lucky or intelligent enough to fall under the apple spell. You might want to keep in mind that insulting is the privilege of the oracle, and he might sue you if he feels you are competing against him (unofficial rumors say that he once sued himself for not having insulted a taxi driver in a compliant way).

Not to mention that given your relatively recent medical record, you should actively be very careful with your diet. Too many apples may cause indigestion or constipation… but having to eat your own words might even kill you.